TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$142,891,824
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,211,057,904
339,560
Markets across
34,155
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,672
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Claude
- Kalshi
Claude - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
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Time left: 03d:18h:21m
Best AI in Aug 2026?
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Description
This group of markets predicts which AI lab will occupy the third position in the Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard filtered for Labs on October 31, 2026, using the 'Style Control On' setting. The resolution depends on the ranking of AI labs based on their models' performance.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets use the same ranking source and tiebreaking rules to determine the third-ranked AI lab.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard with Style Control OnCore resolution logic:
- Rankings are determined by the Lab Rank column on the Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard filtered for Labs.
- If lab ranks are ambiguous or unavailable, the highest-ranking model of each lab is used.
- Ties are broken first by Arena score (including unrounded values), then alphabetically by lab name.
- Models marked “AutoEval” are excluded from consideration.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- AutoEval Exclusion: Any model marked “AutoEval” at the check time is excluded, regardless of rank or score.
- Permanent Source Unavailability: If arena.ai is permanently unavailable, all markets resolve to 'Other'.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the specified AI companies—Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Meta, Alibaba, or Moonshot—has the top-ranked large language model as of August 31, 2026. Ranking is determined primarily by a universal benchmark (UB). If two models share the same rank, the model with the highest Arena Score breaks the tie. Should the Arena Score also be equal, the model with the most public votes wins. If the contest remains unresolved, the earlier-released model is declared the winner. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if its respective company holds the top position under this hierarchical evaluation process.
