TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$101,900,907
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,178,729,067
335,697
Markets across
33,528
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,579
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Jack Barton
- Kalshi
Jack Barton - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2030
Will Jack Barton be the next James Bond?
$
Intro
This market tracks which actor will be officially cast in the iconic role of James Bond. On Kalshi, Callum Turner holds the leading position at 33.0%, while Jacob Elordi follows at 21.0%. The market resolves based on an official casting announcement by the film's producers. Watch for any formal studio announcements or casting confirmations before the January 1, 2030 resolution deadline, as that date marks the end of the window for this market to settle.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if any of the specified actors is officially cast as the next James Bond before January 1, 2030. The casting must be for the next film in the official James Bond series, which traces its lineage back to Dr. No (1962). Spin-offs and unauthorized productions do not qualify. Only a formal casting announcement for the lead role in an upcoming official Bond film triggers resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional entertainment analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time information, insider speculation, and betting sentiment that formal analysts may lag on. While entertainment journalists and casting directors publish occasional predictions, the prediction market aggregates thousands of individual bets into a dynamic probability. Analysts typically focus on acting credentials and franchise fit; traders also price in fan campaigns, social media momentum, and contract availability. This makes the market a complementary signal to expert opinion rather than a replacement.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2030. Resolution is determined by an official announcement from the James Bond film producers or studio regarding the actor cast in the next canonical Bond role. The outcome must be publicly confirmed by a credible entertainment news source or the production company itself. Markets remain open for trading until the resolution criteria are met, allowing traders to adjust positions right up until the official casting is announced. Early resolution may occur if a binding announcement is made before the end date.
Major catalysts include official statements from producers or the studio narrowing the search, actor interviews discussing interest or availability, and news about competing film projects that might affect candidate schedules. Social media campaigns and fan movements can shift trader sentiment. Industry reports about franchise direction, budget, or release timeline influence which actors seem viable. Contract negotiations or casting director comments leak periodically. Award season performance of leading candidates may boost their odds. Any public statement from frontrunners confirming or denying interest creates immediate price movement. Production timelines and competing Bond-related announcements also drive volatility.
