TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$105,468,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,180,963,697
335,495
Markets across
33,618
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,616
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Max Martin
- Polymarket
Max Martin - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether specific celebrities will physically attend a wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. The consensus probability that Max Martin will attend stands at 92.3%, aggregated across Polymarket and Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Watch for any official wedding announcement or confirmation from either Swift or Kelce, as the market resolves to "No" if no wedding occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure different resolution triggers: Polymarket resolves on individual physical attendance at an unspecified venue with multi-source verification, while Kalshi resolves on confirmation of a specific venue (Madison Square Garden) via Source Agencies. Deadline also differs by one day.Hero tip: Treat these as complementary but distinct markets. A YES on Kalshi (MSG wedding confirmed) does not guarantee YES on Polymarket attendee markets if the attendee does not physically appear. Conversely, attendees may appear at a non-MSG venue, resolving YES on Polymarket but NO on Kalshi. Verify venue assumptions before trading.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES if named individual physically attends Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding (venue unspecified) by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution source: photographic/video evidence or credible statements from Swift, Kelce, attendee, or their representatives. Virtual attendance and invitations do not count. If no wedding occurs by deadline, resolves NO.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if Taylor Swift's wedding is reported to occur at Madison Square Garden and confirmed by any Source Agency after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. Venue-specific trigger; does not address individual attendee presence.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
Kalshi
If it is reported that Taylor Swift got married at Madison Square Garden and it's confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in user base, liquidity depth, and trading mechanics can create price gaps on identical outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader demographics with varying risk appetites and information access. Liquidity imbalances mean a large bet on one platform may move odds more dramatically than on another. Settlement rule interpretation, resolution timing, and platform-specific incentives also influence how traders price guest attendance scenarios. These spreads typically narrow as resolution approaches, but monitoring divergences can reveal arbitrage opportunities or signal where informed traders are concentrating positions.
This market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Outcome determination depends on verified guest attendance at the event itself, typically confirmed through official announcements, credible media coverage, or wedding guest lists released post-ceremony. Each specific guest outcome resolves independently based on whether that person actually attends. Markets remain active until the wedding occurs and attendance is publicly confirmed, allowing traders to refine positions as the date approaches and new information emerges about the couple's plans and guest confirmations.
Official engagement announcements or wedding date confirmations would trigger immediate repricing across all guest outcomes. Public statements from Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce about their relationship status, family involvement, or celebrity friendships directly influence odds on specific attendees. Celebrity social media activity, paparazzi sightings, and entertainment news coverage of their relationship timeline all serve as market catalysts. Relationship developments, breakups, or reconciliations would dramatically shift the probability of the wedding occurring at all. Industry events, award shows, or public appearances where they interact with potential guests can also move trader expectations about the final guest list composition.