TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.5b
24H VOL:
$115,807,555
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,188,566,556
336,771
Markets across
33,711
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,629
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Before Dec 1, 2026
- Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Science and Technology
Will OpenAI release Astra before Dec 1, 2026?
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Description
This event group tracks the release timeline for OpenAI's Astra model across multiple prediction markets. Markets are structured around weekly or monthly release windows, with specific criteria for what constitutes a qualifying release.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets consistently require public accessibility of an Astra-named model matching the August 1, 2026 announcement, with resolution based on ET release datePrimary resolution logic: OpenAI official announcements OR consensus of credible reportingCore resolution logic:
- Model must be named "Astra" (including variants like Astra 1, Astra X, or GPT-6 Astra) OR confirmed equivalent to August 1 announcement
- Public accessibility required — open beta or open rolling waitlist qualifies, closed beta does not
- Resolution triggered by earliest ET date meeting accessibility criteria within each market's defined window
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Labeling Error: Placeholder text or website labels not corresponding to actual public access do not qualify
- Successor Branding: Models like "Astra 6" or "GPT-6 Astra" count if confirmed equivalent by OpenAI or credible reporting
Polymarket
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if OpenAI publicly releases a model named "Astra" or a model confirmed to share the same underlying architecture, weights, or training as the disclosed Astra model, regardless of commercial branding or access tier, by the specified deadline dates ranging from August 21 to December 1, 2026. The release must be public and not limited to a closed beta, though a high-cost subscription tier is permissible. The qualifying release is satisfied if the model is publicly named "Astra" (including variants like "Astra 1" or "GPT-6 Astra") or if it is confirmed by OpenAI or credible reporting to derive from the same underlying model disclosed on August 1, 2026, even if released under a different brand name.
