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Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
polymarket

Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Jul 23, 2026, 11:27 AM EST - Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$197,891
Volume 24h:
$6,416
770%
Liquidity:
$22,774
0.02%
Open interest:
$31,281N/A

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

 - Polymarket

Spider-Man: Brand New Day - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 31, 2027

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

55%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 56¢ buys you 179 shares | Odds: 55% Total Payout: $179 | Net Profit: $79 Multiplier: 1.79x | ROI: 79% High Projected APY: 2,369% 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Trade
55%
5%
Yes 56¢No 46¢
2¢
$2,584
$93,618
3%
12%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Avengers: Doomsday

Trade
45%
7%
Yes 46¢No 57¢
3¢
$2,039
$91,540
4%
16%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Dune: Messiah

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$6,080
$8,291
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Toy Story 5

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$4,935
$2,679
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 6d
active
polymarket

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$7,135
$482
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,281
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 2026 box office race tracks the probabilities associated with different movies achieving the second-highest opening weekend gross in 2026. You can view the current odds for each potential outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $6,713, and the total volume traded to date, which is $197,891. This provides a real-time view of where the crowd is placing its bets on which film will perform best.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares in each outcome at any time. The price of a share reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular movie, its price increases, and its implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's depth and liquidity, as reflected in the trading volume, also play a role in price discovery. Currently, the volume indicates significant interest in several potential contenders for the second-biggest opening weekend.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official box office numbers are released and the movie with the second-highest opening weekend gross in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on reported domestic opening weekend figures, as tracked by a widely recognized source for box office data. The market will then settle to 100% probability for the winning movie and 0% for all others, reflecting the definitive result of the event.

Several factors could significantly impact this market between now and Feb 1, 2027. Major casting announcements, trailer releases, and shifts in release dates for anticipated blockbusters are all potential catalysts. Unexpected production delays or negative press surrounding a film could also lower its chances, while positive reviews from early screenings could boost its odds. Furthermore, the performance of competing films—particularly those with similar target audiences—could influence traders’ assessments of each movie’s potential box office success. Any news that alters perceptions of a film’s appeal will likely move this market.