TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$136,531,341
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,197,913,311
339,027
Markets across
34,284
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
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2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Aug 31, 2026
Related News
Time left: 04d:02h:21m
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?
$
Description
This event group tracks which company will have the best Text-to-Video AI technology by the end of August 2026, based on rankings from arena.ai's Text-to-Video Leaderboard.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use arena.ai's Text-to-Video Leaderboard rankings as the primary resolution source with identical tie-breaking procedures and fallback logic.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena LeaderboardCore resolution logic:
- Models are ranked primarily by their position on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard at the specified check time
- Tie-breaking proceeds from highest rank to alphabetical order of company names
- If the leaderboard is unavailable, markets remain open until it becomes accessible, resolving based on the first available check
- If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, markets resolve to "Other"
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Leaderboard Unavailability: Markets remain open until the leaderboard becomes available again; if permanently unavailable, resolves to "Other"
- Tie-Breaking: Rank ties are resolved by alphabetical order of company names as listed in the market group
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event determines which qualifying Chinese AI company holds the highest-ranked model on the Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) as measured at 10:00am ET on August 10, 2026. A company qualifies if its global or primary operational headquarters is in mainland China. If any two or more companies tie for the highest rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology applies; if none exists, all tied companies share the highest rank. In such a tie, each tied company's contract resolves to $1 divided by the number of tied companies, rounded down. The event resolves to "Yes" for the market associated with the company that achieves the highest rank, whether alone or as part of a tie, according to these resolution rules.
Opinion
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
