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24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

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Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
polymarket

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$59,209
Volume 24h:
$0
100%
Liquidity:
$15,193
9%
Open interest:
$3,408N/A

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:17h:42m

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
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Trade on Polymarket

At 89.8¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
88%
Yes 89.8¢No 14.1¢
3.9¢
$1,078
$32,580
0%
64%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

OpenAI

1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.4¢
0.9¢
$669
$8,460
0%
19%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Moonshot

1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.8¢
0.7¢
$560
$1,469
0%
55%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Meta

0%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.9¢
0.7¢
$724
$2,165
0%
11%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Google

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$637
$3,890
0%
5%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.6¢
—
$460
$942
0%
6%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$717
$921
0%
6%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Nvidia

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$971
$901
0%
6%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

Amazon

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$521
$888
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$943
$800
0%
7%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Tencent

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$913
$775
0%
0%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
—
$722
$663
0%
8%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

Thinky

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$886
$636
0%
9%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
—
$506
$563
0%
10%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
—
$523
$559
0%
10%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

Alibaba

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$476
$552
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,297
$496
0%
11%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Mistral

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$529
$495
0%
0%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$827
$491
0%
11%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

MiniMax

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$587
$482
0%
0%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

Microsoft

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$648
$477
0%
0%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders actively set the odds through buying and selling contracts, with the current top outcome reflecting the most bets placed. The market price adjusts continuously based on trading volume and recent shifts in sentiment about the AI model leaderboard market. As Nov 1, 2026 nears, increased activity and tighter spreads may emerge, especially following major benchmark announcements or public evaluations. Monitoring the probability curve and 24-hour volume provides insight into how trader confidence evolves over time.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The winner will be the company ranked highest on the LiveBench Overall leaderboard as of the specified date, based on independently published benchmark results. No internal judgments or platform-specific rules influence this — only what the public data shows at that moment.