TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.6b

24H VOL:

$136,531,341

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,197,913,311

339,027

Markets across

34,284

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Total volume:
$5,876,507
Volume 24h:
$56,177
48%
Liquidity:
$83,446
0.22%
Open interest:
$1,093,020
4%

Before Jan 1, 2027

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will GameStop announce acquisition of eBay before Jan 1, 2027?

8%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 9¢ buys you 1,111 shares | Odds: 8% Total Payout: $1,111 | Net Profit: $1,011 Multiplier: 11.11x | ROI: 1,011% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
8%
2%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$2,990,941
2%
5%
$1,093,020
4mo 6d
active
predict

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
$15,886
$22
0%
74%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$67,560
$2,885,544
0.13%
2%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
7.5%
Yes 8¢No 93.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group addresses whether GameStop will acquire eBay by December 31, 2026. The markets resolve to 'Yes' if an official announcement of the acquisition or merger is made within the specified timeframe, regardless of when the actual transaction occurs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms share identical resolution criteria requiring an official announcement of acquisition/merger by December 31, 2026, with controlling interest requirement for partial salesPrimary resolution logic: Official announcements from GameStop or eBay, supported by credible reporting consensus

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to Yes only if an official acquisition/merger announcement occurs by December 31, 2026
  • Controlling interest (>50% equity) is required for partial sales to qualify
  • Actual completion date of the transaction is irrelevant - announcement timing determines resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Announcement after deadline: Any announcement after December 31, 2026 will resolve to No, even if the deal closes later
  • Non-controlling investment: Investments without >50% equity control or equivalent governance rights do not qualify
Timing: Resolution occurs after the last possible announcement date (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET)Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If GameStop announces an agreement to acquire eBay before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the GameStop–eBay acquisition question across Polymarket and Kalshi. It tracks the current probability consensus, total group volume of $5,708,144, and recent 24-hour activity of $15,210 to reflect how prediction markets are pricing the likelihood of a deal. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, you see whether traders across venues agree on the outcome or diverge, helping you identify market sentiment shifts and liquidity hotspots as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from thousands of traders betting on whether GameStop will acquire eBay by Jan 1, 2027. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on expert opinion and historical models, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information through continuous price discovery. Current odds on Polymarket and Kalshi embed recent news, earnings calls, and deal-flow rumors faster than formal analyst reports. This makes markets particularly useful for tracking shifting sentiment on low-probability corporate events where traditional coverage may be sparse or delayed.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi may price this event differently due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and contract specifications. Polymarket offers a binary outcome on the acquisition itself, while Kalshi specifies an announcement deadline before Jan 1, 2027. Differences in trading hours, fee structures, and regulatory constraints can also create temporary spreads of 1.5 percentage points or more. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but persistent divergence often signals genuine disagreement about what counts as resolution success.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether a binding acquisition agreement between GameStop and eBay is announced and confirmed by that deadline. Each platform applies its own verification process to determine whether the event criteria have been met, drawing on regulatory filings, press releases, and public statements from both companies. Traders should review each platform's specific resolution language before placing bets to ensure alignment with their expectations.

Key catalysts include earnings calls or shareholder letters mentioning strategic M&A, activist investor campaigns targeting either company, changes in retail or e-commerce market conditions, and any public statements from GameStop or eBay leadership about acquisition interest. Regulatory developments, credit market shifts, or competing bids for either company could also shift odds sharply. Unexpected leadership changes, activist campaigns, or major business pivots at either firm may signal increased or decreased acquisition likelihood, moving market prices in real time.