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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
polymarket
limitless

Will Tesla and SpaceX announce a merger by 2026?

Total volume:
$1,108,797
Volume 24h:
$1,115
50%
Liquidity:
$55,684
4%
Open interest:
$139,968N/A

December 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

December 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?

44%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 44¢ buys you 227 shares | Odds: 44% Total Payout: $227 | Net Profit: $127 Multiplier: 2.27x | ROI: 127% | APY: 84% 491 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31, 2027

Trade
44%
Yes 44¢No 57¢
1¢
$2,658
$13,416
0.16%
154%
N/A
1y 4mo
active
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
31%
Yes 32¢No 70¢
2¢
$3,520
$4,510
0%
18%
N/A
10mo 1w
active
polymarket

February 28, 2027

Trade
23%
Yes 23¢No 78¢
1¢
$4,607
$944
0%
0.55%
N/A
6mo 5d
active
polymarket

January 31, 2027

Trade
22%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
$4,757
$1,301
0.43%
0.43%
N/A
5mo 1w
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
19%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
$22,454
$135,287
0.07%
3%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
4%
Yes 4.5¢No 96.2¢
0.7¢
$17,688
$345,239
0.29%
3%
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$607,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
limitless

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
50¢
N/A
$1,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether Tesla and SpaceX will officially announce a merger or acquisition involving controlling interest in either direction. Across Polymarket and Limitless, the aggregated consensus shows a 24.5% probability of an announcement by December 31, 2026, with a 10.5% probability for an earlier announcement by September 30, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Tesla or SpaceX, with credible reporting consensus as a secondary source. Watch for any public statements or SEC filings from either company as the December 31, 2026 announcement deadline approaches.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution criteria, timing, controlling-interest threshold, and source hierarchy with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Official announcements from Tesla or SpaceX; credible reporting consensus as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution triggers on official announcement of merger or acquisition between Tesla and SpaceX (either direction) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
  • Announcement alone is sufficient; actual deal completion is not required
  • Controlling interest is defined as >50% equity or equivalent voting and governance control
  • Partial sales or investments without controlling interest do not qualify for Yes resolution
  • Resolution defaults to No if no qualifying announcement occurs by deadline

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Announcement vs. Completion Timing: An announcement made before June 30, 2026 resolves to Yes even if the merger/acquisition closes after that date or never closes
  • Controlling Interest Threshold: Transactions must result in >50% equity ownership or equivalent control via voting and governance rights; minority stakes or strategic investments do not qualify
  • Source Hierarchy: Official statements from Tesla or SpaceX are primary; if official sources are ambiguous, credible media consensus may be used for resolution
  • Bidirectional Scope: Resolution applies to Tesla acquiring SpaceX OR SpaceX acquiring Tesla; directionality does not affect outcome
Timing: Resolution occurs on the earlier of: (1) official announcement of qualifying merger/acquisition by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or (2) June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no announcement has been madeOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.