TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$142,857,652
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,278,615
483,990
Markets across
35,811
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,349
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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Instacart (Maplebear)
- Kalshi
Instacart (Maplebear) - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Companies
Will any company announce acquisition of Maplebear before Jan 1, 2027?
$
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of specific companies being acquired before January 1, 2027. Currently, the consensus probability of Snapchat being acquired is 48.0%, while Ubisoft follows closely at 42.6%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi, Opinion, Polymarket, and Predict, and will resolve based on official announcements from the listed company and/or consensus of credible reporting. Keep an eye on company earnings reports and potential shareholder activism as key signals leading up to the resolution date of January 1, 2027, which marks the end of the betting period for this market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use identical resolution logic: 'Yes' if any acquisition agreement is announced before January 1, 2027, regardless of deal completion.Primary resolution logic: Official announcements from the listed company and/or consensus of credible reportingCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves to 'Yes' if any entity announces an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026
- Announcement from official company sources OR consensus of credible reporting qualifies for 'Yes'
- Actual completion of the acquisition is NOT required for resolution
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Announced but failed deals: Resolve to 'Yes' immediately upon announcement, even if deal later fails to close
- Subsequent spin-offs: Once resolved 'Yes' for acquisition announcement, any later spin-off or restructuring does not revert resolution
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Kalshi
An acquisition resolves to Yes upon public announcement of a definitive, binding agreement between an acquiring company and the target company. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, and agreements in principle do not qualify. The transaction need not close for resolution; regulatory blocking or subsequent cancellation does not affect the outcome. Cross-border acquisitions qualify if a definitive agreement is announced. Internal reorganizations, joint ventures, and minority investments do not qualify unless they involve controlling ownership transfer. Qualifying structures include asset purchases, stock purchases, tender offers, SPAC combinations, and takeover agreements. Transactions involving subsidiaries qualify if they represent majority operations or equity control; transactions limited solely to assets or divisions must represent the majority of operations or equity control.
Predict
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Opinion
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-time trader sentiment and can price in insider information or market momentum not yet reflected in public reports. Analysts may be more conservative or bound by institutional frameworks, while traders bet on probabilities as they see them. The contrast can provide early warning signals — when odds shift sharply, it may indicate changing expectations about merger activity, even before analysts adjust their views.
On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could have institutional participants with longer-term outlooks. This can create short-term spreads of 78.5 between the two venues. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and order-book depth influences how prices discover consensus.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Any announced acquisition that meets the market's terms — a definitive agreement between two companies — will settle the market. The key trigger is a public press release, regulatory filing, or reputable news report confirming the deal, at which point all contracts are settled automatically based on the final market state.
Market-moving signals include major economic shifts, regulatory changes affecting merger activity, or high-profile speculation from influential analysts. Corporate earnings calls revealing strategic acquisition plans, geopolitical developments impacting global deal-making, or sudden leadership changes at large firms can also shift probabilities. On platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, rapid bets following such news often cause sharp price swings, reflecting updated expectations about which companies are most likely targets before 2027.