TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$136,531,341
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,197,913,311
339,027
Markets across
34,284
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
OpenAI
- Polymarket
OpenAI - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Sep 30, 2026
Related News
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?
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Description
This event group determines which company will have the best AI model on the LiveBench (Mathematics) leaderboard at the end of September 2026. The resolution depends on the highest Mathematics score, with tiebreakers including cost per successful task and alphabetical order of company names.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve based on the same leaderboard, scoring criteria, and tiebreaker rules, ensuring consistent outcomes across platforms.Primary resolution logic: LiveBench.ai leaderboardCore resolution logic:
- The model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai as of September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET determines the resolution.
- If scores are tied, the model with the lower cost per successful task ranks higher.
- If still tied, alphabetical order of company names is used as the final tiebreaker.
- If LiveBench is unavailable, the market remains open until the leaderboard is accessible; if permanently unavailable, it resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Permanent Unavailability: If LiveBench.ai is permanently unavailable, all markets resolve to 'Other'.
- Tie in Score and Cost: Alphabetical order of company names breaks any remaining ties.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Kalshi
Resolution depends on which model achieves the #1 position on the Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) at the specified date and time. If multiple models are tied for the top rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology applies. When no official tie-breaking procedure exists, all tied models share the highest rank. In such cases, each tied model's contract resolves to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down.
