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Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?
polymarket

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?

Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$60,708
Volume 24h:
$4,276
4,196%
Liquidity:
$28,581
3%
Open interest:
$6,327N/A

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:05h:43m

Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?

85%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 87¢ buys you 115 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $115 | Net Profit: $15 Multiplier: 1.15x | ROI: 15% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
85%
4%
Yes 87¢No 18¢
5¢
$857
$24,938
20%
37%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
8%
Yes 15.8¢No 99.2¢
15¢
$797
$12,224
1%
4%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Google

Trade
3%
Yes 4.1¢No 99.1¢
3.2¢
$954
$3,585
0%
0.89%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Tencent

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.9¢
1¢
$980
$1,163
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.9¢
1¢
$866
$986
0%
0.32%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Meta

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.8¢
0.7¢
$826
$2,096
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$1,042
$1,527
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$1,095
$1,613
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Microsoft

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,501
$2,152
0%
36%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Mistral

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,069
$1,647
0%
10%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,087
$1,452
0%
4%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

StepFun

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,086
$1,432
0%
4%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,858
$1,162
0.33%
5%
N/A
4d 17h 42m
active
polymarket

ByteDance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,833
$1,141
0%
5%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,397
$858
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Amazon

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,479
$649
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Thinky

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,410
$617
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

MiniMax

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,413
$543
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Nvidia

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,401
$386
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Meituan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,240
$283
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,390
$253
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 43m
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the latest odds and price history for the AI math model leaderboard market, along with 24-hour volume of $3,867. It shows how traders are betting on which company will lead LiveBench’s Mathematics leaderboard by the end of October. The interface updates in real time, reflecting shifts in market sentiment as new information emerges about model performance and benchmarking results.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through a logarithmic market scoring rule that rewards accurate forecasting. The current top outcome has a chance of 84.5%, reflecting aggregated bets on which company will finish highest on the LiveBench Mathematics leaderboard by the deadline. Volume of $60,707 shows liquidity, and price shifts respond instantly to new benchmark data, patch releases, or statements from research teams.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the LiveBench Mathematics leaderboard results for end of October are verified against credible public sources. The final ranking will determine the winning company based on publicly released metrics, and the market will close shortly after the data is irreversibly public. No further trading occurs after verification.

Key events that could shift this market include major benchmark updates, announcements about model architecture improvements, release of research papers showing higher accuracy, or partnerships that accelerate deployment. Any signal suggesting a company is ahead on the LiveBench Mathematics leaderboard — even preliminary test results — may cause rapid price changes. Traders will also watch for statements from leading AI labs about upcoming updates or changes to training data that could affect performance metrics before the Nov 1, 2026 cutoff.