TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Which company has the best AI model end of October?
polymarket

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$3,695,853
Volume 24h:
$99,266
36%
Liquidity:
$1,539,571
0.67%
Open interest:
$489,882N/A

Google

 - Polymarket

Google - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:05h:41m

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 88.4¢ buys you 113 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $113 | Net Profit: $13 Multiplier: 1.13x | ROI: 13% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Google

Trade
88%
1%
Yes 88.4¢No 12.9¢
1.3¢
$17,811
$818,629
3%
24%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Anthropic

11%
1%
Yes 11.4¢No 89.8¢
1.2¢
$30,409
$870,955
3%
38%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

OpenAI

1%
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.1¢
0.8¢
$36,344
$465,541
3%
17%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Meta

0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.7¢
0.2¢
$47,750
$414,728
0.42%
19%
N/A
4d 17h 40m
active
polymarket

Alibaba

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$50,531
$208,682
10%
N/A
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Moonshot

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$49,590
$189,369
0.68%
62%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$73,562
$338,660
0%
5%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$83,108
$144,818
1%
47%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$39,172
$108,704
0%
0.93%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$74,463
$35,471
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$101,890
$23,916
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Mistral

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$80,951
$19,830
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Amazon

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$86,209
$15,066
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$102,589
$11,526
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Nvidia

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$99,899
$8,360
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Microsoft

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$91,177
$6,504
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Tencent

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$90,004
$6,478
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$97,863
$4,889
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

MiniMax

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$94,526
$2,262
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

Thinky

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$96,106
$925
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$95,616
$540
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 41m
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner will be the company most widely recognized as having the best AI model by that date, based on independent analysis and public announcements.