TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$142,891,824

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,211,057,904

339,560

Markets across

34,155

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,672

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
polymarket

Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)

Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$14,683
Volume 24h:
$1,364
14%
Liquidity:
$19,746
57%
Open interest:
$3,165N/A

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?

85%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 86¢ buys you 116 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $116 | Net Profit: $16 Multiplier: 1.16x | ROI: 16% | APY: 133% Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
85%
9%
Yes 86¢No 16¢
$900
$9,572
17%
72%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Meta

4%
Yes 6.9¢No 98.3¢
5.2¢
$893
$229
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Google

4%
1%
Yes 7.8¢No 99.2¢
$1,030
$209
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

OpenAI

3%
Yes 4.9¢No 99¢
3.9¢
$1,113
$239
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Alibaba

2%
Yes No 99.8¢
3.8¢
$810
$287
0%
12%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Moonshot

1%
Yes No 99.7¢
0.7¢
$905
$319
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

1%
Yes No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$875
$383
0%
6%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Z.ai

1%
Yes No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$802
$327
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

MiniMax

1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$1,026
$290
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$1,084
$269
0%
14%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

ByteDance

1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$963
$263
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Meituan

1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$964
$247
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Tencent

1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$1,150
$247
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Microsoft

1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$953
$245
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$924
$209
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$950
$248
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$622
$119
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Mistral

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$996
$249
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Thinky

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,019
$247
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Amazon

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$877
$243
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

Nvidia

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$890
$243
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".