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Which companies will conduct layoffs this year?
kalshi

Which companies will conduct layoffs this year?

May 20, 2026, 5:00 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$68,628
Volume 24h:
$3,953N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$35,900
3%

Oracle

 - Kalshi

Oracle - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Oracle issue layoffs this year?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 126 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Oracle

Trade
97%
1%
Yes 100¢No 8¢
8¢
N/A
$22,818
2%
18%
$12,576
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Amazon

Trade
97%
Yes 97¢No 4¢
1¢
N/A
$13,283
0%
147%
$9,260
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Apple

Trade
97%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$11,105
0.18%
323%
$4,505
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Netflix

Trade
93%
Yes 92¢No 9¢
1¢
N/A
$5,713
0%
27%
$1,788
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Alphabet

Trade
52%
Yes 52¢No 52¢
4¢
N/A
$2,674
0%
17%
$815
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Tesla

Trade
49%
Yes 49¢No 56¢
5¢
N/A
$1,213
0.85%
68%
$768
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

NVIDIA

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 92¢
4¢
N/A
$3,389
3%
114%
$1,536
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Microsoft

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,475
N/A
N/A
$2,883
4mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

TikTok

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,957
N/A
N/A
$1,768
4mo 6d
Yes
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks whether Apple will announce, implement, or acknowledge layoffs before the end of 2026. On Kalshi, the probability of Apple conducting layoffs this year stands at 67.0%, according to the resolution source tied to official company announcements or credible reporting. The outcome will be determined by January 1, 2027, so watch for any official statements from Apple leadership regarding workforce reductions through year-end 2026.

Kalshi

A company's market resolves to Yes if it announces, implements, or acknowledges a layoff after the market's issuance and before January 1, 2027. The resolution criteria apply uniformly across all tracked companies: any public acknowledgment of workforce reduction—whether announced in advance, executed, or retroactively disclosed—triggers a Yes resolution. The timeframe is fixed from issuance through the end of 2026, with no distinction made between the timing, scale, or nature of the layoff announcement or implementation.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution depends on whether each company announces a material workforce reduction before that deadline. Outcomes are determined by official company announcements, SEC filings, press releases, and credible news reports confirming layoff events. Each company contract resolves independently: if layoffs occur, that contract settles at 100 cents; if no layoffs are announced by the deadline, it settles at 0 cents. Traders holding winning positions receive their payout automatically upon resolution.

Quarterly earnings calls and forward guidance are primary catalysts; management commentary on hiring freezes or restructuring plans can shift odds sharply. Macroeconomic data—GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer spending—influences layoff probability across sectors. Tech companies may react to AI adoption timelines and margin pressure; financial firms to interest-rate changes; retail to consumer demand weakness. Activist investor campaigns, activist short reports, and insider stock sales can signal distress. Regulatory changes, supply-chain disruptions, and M&A announcements also move markets. Real-time news flow and analyst downgrades keep odds dynamic as traders reassess each company's headcount trajectory through Jan 1, 2027.