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484,032

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When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
polymarket

When will the Danube River return to normal levels?

Aug 10, 2026, 11:38 AM EST - Nov 1, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$161,233
Volume 24h:
$2,867
39%
Liquidity:
$2,536
71%
Open interest:
$18,616N/A

Does not return by November 1, 2026

 - Polymarket

Does not return by November 1, 2026 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 05d:18h:00m

Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.4¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 0.6% | APY: 44% Low liquidity 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Does not return by November 1, 2026

Trade
99%
1%
Yes 99.4¢No 2.4¢
1.8¢
$568
$54,455
0.01%
12%
N/A
5d 18h
active
polymarket

October 1 - 31, 2026

Trade
2%
Yes 2.7¢No 99.2¢
1.9¢
$1,968
$46,696
0%
7%
N/A
5d 18h
active
polymarket

September 15 - 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,162
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 18h
No
polymarket

September 1 - 14, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,505
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Before September 1, 2026

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Danube River recovery market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for this prediction event. It shows how traders value the likelihood of the Danube River returning to normal levels before Nov 2, 2026. You can view current top-outcome chances at 98.5%, along with 24-hour volume of $3. This tool helps you monitor sentiment shifts as the event approaches its resolution date.

Currently, this market reflects strong confidence that normal levels will return, with top-outcome odds at 98.5%. Analyst forecasts often emphasize climate patterns, water management policies, and seasonal trends. Where this market diverges, it usually captures crowd-sourced expectations not fully captured in traditional reports. Tracking both sources together offers a fuller picture of market sentiment versus expert opinion.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through continuous bidding, with the current top outcome showing a chance of 98.5%. Volume of $3 over the last 24 hours reflects active participation. Prices adjust dynamically based on new hydrological data, policy updates, and weather forecasts, allowing the market to price in evolving conditions as they emerge.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution depends on whether official hydrological measurements show the Danube River at normal levels within the defined timeframe. Any authoritative data source confirming the status will settle the market, bringing clarity to participants.

Key signals include updated hydrological reports, weather forecasts affecting river flow, and regional water management decisions. Any announcement from international bodies monitoring the Danube, or extreme weather events, can shift trader sentiment. As new information emerges, especially close to Nov 2, 2026, expect rapid price adjustments reflecting the latest expectations for the river’s status.