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What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
polymarket

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

May 21, 2026, 1:55 PM EST - Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$547,094
Volume 24h:
$35,551
131%
Liquidity:
$73,587
9%
Open interest:
$40,575N/A

<$1T

 - Polymarket

<$1T - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?

29%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 29.9¢ buys you 334 shares | Odds: 29% Total Payout: $334 | Net Profit: $234 Multiplier: 3.34x | ROI: 234% | APY: 178% 430 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<$1T

Trade
29%
1%
Yes 29.9¢No 72.5¢
2.4¢
$5,906
$94,026
2%
14%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$1.5T–$1.75T

Trade
18%
7%
Yes 19¢No 82.1¢
1.1¢
$6,598
$67,924
18%
60%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$1.25T–$1.5T

Trade
18%
3%
Yes 19.6¢No 83.9¢
3.5¢
$9,337
$99,768
22%
117%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$1.75T–$2.0T

Trade
16%
1%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
$10,976
$102,873
4%
58%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$2.25T–$2.5T

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 6.3¢No 96¢
2.3¢
$10,502
$30,775
0.03%
16%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$2.0T–$2.25T

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 8.8¢No 98.7¢
7.5¢
$7,463
$5,666
0%
2%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$2.5T+

Trade
4%
2%
Yes 8¢No 99.2¢
7.2¢
$5,926
$88,046
0%
0.73%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$1.0T–$1.25T

Trade
2%
4%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.8¢
2¢
$16,880
$58,016
3%
8%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
Total markets: 8

Description

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenAI IPO valuation market tracks the current odds of various valuation ranges, providing a real-time view of where traders believe the initial public offering will land. You can see the price history of different outcomes, allowing you to analyze how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $38,533, and the total volume traded to date, which is $547,094. This gives a clear picture of market activity and interest in this specific prediction market.

Currently, predictions in this market reflect a collective assessment of OpenAI's potential valuation that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts anticipate a substantial IPO valuation, the range of opinions varies considerably. This market allows for a more nuanced view, as traders can express beliefs about specific valuation bands. Comparing the most likely outcome in this market to the average analyst price target provides insight into whether the 'wisdom of the crowd' aligns with or diverges from expert opinions on the future IPO valuation of OpenAI.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different valuation outcomes. The price of each share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders buy into a particular valuation range, the higher its price climbs, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment surrounding OpenAI's IPO.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the OpenAI IPO valuation is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market outcome will be determined by the actual valuation at which OpenAI first offers shares to the public. This will be based on the initial trading price following the IPO, and will be sourced from reliable financial news outlets and official exchange data. The resolution will reflect the highest valuation achieved during the initial public offering process, representing the market's assessment of OpenAI’s worth at that time.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding OpenAI’s financial performance, such as revenue growth or profitability reports, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Regulatory developments impacting the tech industry or IPO processes could also play a role. Furthermore, broader economic conditions, like interest rate changes or shifts in investor sentiment towards AI companies, could influence valuations. Any news related to competitor IPOs or significant advancements in OpenAI’s technology could also move this market as traders reassess the company’s potential.