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What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
polymarket

What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

Aug 19, 2026, 9:45 AM EST - Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$250,742
Volume 24h:
$23,066
76%
Liquidity:
$45,893
15%
Open interest:
$14,633N/A

$1.50–$1.75T

 - Polymarket

$1.50–$1.75T - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?

50%chance
Amount

$

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At 51.4¢ buys you 195 shares | Odds: 50% Total Payout: $195 | Net Profit: $95 Multiplier: 1.95x | ROI: 95% | APY: 76% 430 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$1.50–$1.75T

Trade
50%
9%
Yes 51.4¢No 51.3¢
2.7¢
$7,622
$44,168
11%
65%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$1.75–$2.00T

31%
13%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
$4,963
$100,274
3%
42%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$1.25–$1.50T

7%
2%
Yes 8.7¢No 94.5¢
3.2¢
$4,531
$16,383
29%
102%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$2.00–$2.25T

6%
1%
Yes 10.4¢No 98.6¢
9¢
$5,343
$47,831
10%
22%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

No IPO by December 31, 2027

2%
1%
Yes 3.7¢No 99.6¢
3.3¢
$4,363
$8,188
29%
47%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$2.25–$2.50T

1%
Yes 1.5¢No 98.9¢
0.4¢
$8,419
$15,191
11%
21%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

$2.50T+

1%
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.7¢
0.9¢
$4,880
$9,954
17%
38%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

<$1.25T

1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.8¢
0.9¢
$5,772
$8,753
19%
64%
N/A
1y 2mo
active
Total markets: 8

Description

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. The IPO valuation will be determined in the following order of precedence: (1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus or in an official Anthropic announcement; (2) if no such figure is stated, the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis as disclosed in the final prospectus, where the fully diluted count includes all outstanding shares of every class and all shares underlying outstanding options, restricted stock units, warrants, and convertible instruments, regardless of vesting or exercise status and without applying the treasury stock method; (3) if the fully diluted share count cannot be determined from the final prospectus, the implied fully diluted IPO valuation as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic's IPO has not priced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If the IPO prices by the deadline, the market will resolve according to the final prospectus even if it is published after the end date. If Anthropic becomes publicly traded without a priced initial public offering, including through a direct listing or through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, this market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of Anthropic at its initial public offering (IPO) price. Anthropic refers to Anthropic PBC or the corporate successor or parent holding company whose listing represents Anthropic's business. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. The IPO valuation will be determined in the following order of precedence: (1) the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price, as stated in the final prospectus or in an official Anthropic announcement; (2) if no such figure is stated, the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis as disclosed in the final prospectus, where the fully diluted count includes all outstanding shares of every class and all shares underlying outstanding options, restricted stock units, warrants, and convertible instruments, regardless of vesting or exercise status and without applying the treasury stock method; (3) if the fully diluted share count cannot be determined from the final prospectus, the implied fully diluted IPO valuation as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic's IPO has not priced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If the IPO prices by the deadline, the market will resolve according to the final prospectus even if it is published after the end date. If Anthropic becomes publicly traded without a priced initial public offering, including through a direct listing or through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, this market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Anthropic IPO valuation market shows real-time odds and price history on Polymarket, along with 24-hour volume of $21,653. It provides a snapshot of how traders are betting on whether Anthropic's IPO valuation will meet certain thresholds, reflecting market sentiment and dynamics as they unfold.

Currently, this market shows a strong tilt toward one outcome, with 50.0% probability assigned to it. That contrasts with many analyst forecasts, which are more split due to differing assumptions about market conditions and growth prospects. Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a more decisive view than the broader analyst community at this stage.

On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 50.0% probability to the leading outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects collective trader expectations about Anthropic's potential valuation at IPO, adjusted for new information flows. Volume of $21,653 over the last 24 hours shows active participation, with price movements driven by shifts in investor sentiment, financial forecasts, and macro economic indicators influencing AI sector valuations.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final valuation will be determined by official IPO filings and announcements, which traders will watch closely as the resolution date approaches.

Several key signals could shift probabilities before Jan 1, 2028. Earnings reports, new funding rounds, regulatory developments, and broader market trends in the AI sector will all influence expectations. Major tech analyst upgrades or downgrades, alongside macroeconomic shifts affecting tech valuations, may cause rapid price adjustments. As the IPO date approaches, any official guidance on valuation ranges from Anthropic or its underwriters could dramatically reshape market sentiment and trading dynamics.