TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
predict
polymarket

What price will Lighter hit in 2026?

Dec 30, 2025, 3:04 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$909,819
Volume 24h:
$16,082
200%
Liquidity:
$157,913
9%
Open interest:
$66,556N/A

↓ $2.5

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Lighter dip to $2.5 before 2027?

53%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 58¢ buys you 172 shares | Odds: 53% Total Payout: $172 | Net Profit: $72 Multiplier: 1.72x | ROI: 72% High Projected APY: 1,934% Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ $2.5

Trade
53%
2%
Yes 58¢No 53¢
11¢
$286
$4,761
8%
66%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↓ $2.5

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 98.9¢No 98.5¢
97.4¢
$2,127
$1,960
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
52.5%
Yes 78.5¢No 75.8¢
Avg: 54.2¢Max: 97.4¢
polymarket

↓ $2

Trade
36%
2%
Yes 37¢No 66¢
3¢
$358
$1,529
23%
53%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↓ $2

Trade
N/A
N/A
97.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
35.5%
Yes 37¢No 66¢
Avg: 50.3¢Max: 97.6¢
polymarket

↑ $6

Trade
22%
Yes 23¢No 79¢
2¢
$1,393
$88,331
0.15%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↑ $6

Trade
20%
Yes 39.9¢No 99.7¢
39.6¢
$33,623
$2,523
0%
25%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
22%
Yes 31.5¢No 89.4¢
Avg: 20.8¢Max: 39.6¢
predict

↑ $8

Trade
11%
Yes 13.5¢No 92¢
5.5¢
$2,164
$978
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

↑ $8

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 10.4¢No 90.8¢
1.2¢
$17,099
$106,635
0%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
9.8%
Yes 12¢No 91.4¢
Avg: 3.4¢Max: 5.5¢
polymarket

↑ $10

Trade
7%
Yes 7.7¢No 93.7¢
1.4¢
$34,828
$149,790
0%
0.27%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↑ $10

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7%
Yes 7.7¢No 93.7¢
Avg: 50.4¢Max: 99.5¢
polymarket

↑ $12

Trade
3%
Yes 4.4¢No 97.7¢
2.1¢
$34,328
$7,677
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↑ $12

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.4%
Yes 4.4¢No 97.7¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max: 2.1¢
polymarket

↑ $15

Trade
3%
Yes 4.2¢No 97.6¢
1.8¢
$437
$977
0%
0.53%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↑ $15

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.3%
Yes 4.2¢No 97.6¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 1.8¢
polymarket

↑ $20

Trade
3%
Yes 4.1¢No 99.1¢
3.2¢
$958
$503
0%
0.2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

↑ $20

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.5%
Yes 4.1¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 3.2¢Max: 3.2¢
polymarket

↓ $1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$169,076
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$151,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

↓ $2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$128,229
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

↑ $3

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$77,608
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
predict

↑ $4

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$30,151
$11,574
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

↓ $3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,881
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
predict

↓ $3

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$162
$2,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
polymarket

↓ $1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market tracks whether the cryptocurrency Lighter will reach a price of $6 before January 1, 2027. Currently, the aggregated probability across Predict and Polymarket indicates a 74.0% chance of this occurring. This consensus view combines data from both platforms, with resolution determined by 1-minute candles on the LIT/USDC pair at https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC. Traders should watch the price action leading up to January 1, 2027, as that date represents the end of the betting period and the final window for Lighter to reach the target price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms rely on the same data source (Lighter LIT/USDC 1-minute candles) and similar logic for determining market resolution, with minor date variations addressed in the timing section.Primary resolution logic: Lighter (LIT/USDC) 1-minute candles at https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is determined by the High or Low price of a 1-minute candle for the LIT/USDC pair on the Lighter exchange.
  • For 'reach' markets, the High price must be equal to or greater than the target price.
  • For 'dip' markets, the Low price must be equal to or lower than the target price.
  • Price action from other exchanges or trading pairs is not considered.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Timing Differences: Polymarket has different start/end dates for some markets (e.g., Dec 30, 2025 - Dec 31, 2026 vs. Jan 27, 2026 - Dec 31, 2026). Resolution will be based on the specific dates defined for each individual market on each platform.
  • Simultaneous Hit/Dip: If a 1-minute candle simultaneously hits a 'reach' target and dips to a 'dip' target, both markets will resolve independently based on their respective criteria.
Timing: Resolution will occur when a 1-minute candle meets the specified price criteria within the defined timeframe for each individual market. Polymarket markets generally resolve between December 30, 2025 and December 31, 2026, while some markets on both platforms extend to December 31, 2026. The specific dates for each market on each platform will govern resolution.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What price will Lighter hit before 2027?

Predict

What price will Lighter hit before 2027?

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this market tracks predictions on the price of Lighter in 2026. The dashboard aggregates trading volume and implied probabilities from both platforms to provide a consensus view. Currently, the combined volume across these venues is $909,819, with $1,172 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of where the crowd believes the Lighter price will land, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional financial analysis. The Lighter price market provides a forward-looking assessment of this cryptocurrency's potential.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, represent a collective forecast of future events, in this case, the Lighter price. Unlike spot prices, which reflect current value, these odds incorporate expectations about future supply, demand, and broader market sentiment. This can lead to divergences between current prices and the implied probabilities within this market. If a significant event is anticipated, the odds may move more quickly than the spot price, offering insight into potential future price movements. Analyzing these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can differ due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with potentially varying risk appetites and information sets, which influences their trading behavior. Additionally, the volume of trading on each platform – currently $909,819 overall – impacts price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors the outcome that Lighter will reach $6 before 2027 at 52.5%, while Predict leans toward the same outcome at 50.2%, showing a general consensus but still some variation.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the Lighter price in 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a widely-recognized source for cryptocurrency pricing data. The resolution will reflect the consensus price of Lighter at the end of 2026, providing a clear and objective outcome for this market. Traders can monitor the progress of this market and adjust their positions accordingly as the resolution date approaches.

Several key signals could influence this market. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency landscape, such as regulatory changes or the adoption of Lighter by significant institutions, could significantly impact price expectations. Technological advancements related to Lighter's underlying blockchain, or security breaches, would also be influential factors. Furthermore, macroeconomic events like changes in interest rates or inflation could affect investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies generally, and therefore this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the Lighter price market.