TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$141,844,315

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,993,399

484,032

Markets across

35,818

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,360

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
What named storms will be hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific this year?
kalshi

What named storms will be hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific this year?

May 15, 2026, 6:00 PM EST - Dec 1, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$67,820
Volume 24h:
$5
98%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$19,734
0.02%

Vance

 - Kalshi

Vance - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 1, 2026

Will Vance be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 11% Illiquid market 35 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Vance

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$334
0%
39%
$318
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Winnie

Trade
75%
Yes 98¢No 90¢
88¢
N/A
$3,957
0.13%
831%
$90
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Zeke

Trade
39%
Yes 64¢No 95¢
59¢
N/A
$6,439
0%
20,525%
$190
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Yolanda

Trade
12%
Yes 75¢No 88¢
63¢
N/A
$7,089
0%
16,965%
$253
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Xavier

Trade
8%
Yes 50¢No 97¢
47¢
N/A
$6,504
0%
15,273%
$155
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Lowell

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$13,756
0%
0.01%
$6,307
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Iselle

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,939
0%
0%
$1,491
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Elida

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,971
0%
0%
$514
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Julio

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,592
0%
15%
$1,211
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Douglas

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,981
0%
3%
$1,443
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Norbert

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,635
0%
0%
$459
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Odalys

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,284
N/A
N/A
$1,232
1mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Simon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,164
N/A
N/A
$385
1mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Genevieve

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,033
N/A
N/A
$813
1mo 5d
No
kalshi

Fausto

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$781
1mo 5d
No
kalshi

Rachel

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$504
N/A
N/A
$339
1mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Karina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$384
N/A
N/A
$189
1mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Trudy

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
$32
1mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Polo

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$11
1mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Marie

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$8
1mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Boris

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,797
N/A
N/A
$1,372
1mo 5d
No
kalshi

Hernan

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,160
N/A
N/A
$1,136
1mo 5d
No
kalshi

Amanda

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$831
N/A
N/A
$805
1mo 5d
No
kalshi

Cristina

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$389
N/A
N/A
$201
1mo 5d
No
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market tracks whether specific named tropical storms will reach hurricane strength in the Eastern Pacific basin during the 2026 season. On Kalshi, the probability that storm Fausto will be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific stands at 65.5%. Resolution will be determined by official National Hurricane Center classifications for storms occurring between May 15, 2026 and December 1, 2026. Monitor the onset of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season in mid-May 2026, as early storm development and intensity patterns will signal whether predetermined named storms are likely to achieve hurricane status before the season concludes on December 1, 2026.

Kalshi

If a storm named Amanda is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Boris is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Cristina is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Douglas is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Elida is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Fausto is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Genevieve is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Hernan is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Iselle is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Julio is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Karina is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Lowell is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Marie is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Norbert is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Odalys is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Polo is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Rachel is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Simon is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Trudy is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Vance is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Winnie is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Xavier is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Yolanda is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Zeke is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for this market tracks the real-time probability of various storms being categorized as hurricanes within the Eastern Pacific basin. You’ll find the current odds for each named storm, a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $5. Total volume traded on this market to date is $67,820, indicating significant interest in forecasting the intensity of storms. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of how traders are assessing the risk of hurricane formation.

Currently, prediction market participants are pricing in an 89% chance that Will Simon will be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year. This contrasts with typical pre-season forecasts from organizations like the National Hurricane Center, which issue seasonal outlooks based on a range of atmospheric and oceanic factors. While analysts often provide probabilistic ranges for the total number of hurricanes, this market allows for a more granular assessment of individual storms. It's important to remember that prediction markets reflect a collective intelligence, incorporating diverse perspectives and evolving information.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each named storm becoming a hurricane. The price of a contract reflects the market's consensus view of that probability, ranging from 0 to 100. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's depth and liquidity—indicated by volume—influence how quickly prices respond to new data. Higher volume generally means more efficient price discovery.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome determined by whether a named storm in the Eastern Pacific is officially classified as a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or another recognized meteorological authority. The classification will be verified against credible public reporting from these agencies. The market will settle to 100 if the storm reaches hurricane status, and 0 if it does not. Traders should monitor official forecasts and advisories as the season progresses to stay informed about potential developments.

Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Changes in sea surface temperatures, particularly in the eastern Pacific, are a key driver of hurricane development. The presence or absence of El Niño or La Niña conditions will play a crucial role. Additionally, the track and intensity forecasts for individual storms—like Will Simon—will directly impact trading activity. Unexpected shifts in wind shear or atmospheric stability could also cause prices to fluctuate. Monitoring these meteorological signals and official forecasts will be essential for understanding market movements.