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What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?
kalshi

What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?

May 15, 2026, 6:00 PM EST - Dec 1, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$46,330
Volume 24h:
$235N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$24,368
0.12%

Wale

 - Kalshi

Wale - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 1, 2026

Will Wale be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?

24%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 25¢ buys you 400 shares | Odds: 24% Total Payout: $400 | Net Profit: $300 Multiplier: 4.00x | ROI: 300% APY not meaningful 35 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Wale

Trade
24%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$533
0%
0%
$491
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Akoni

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,842
0%
0%
$3,931
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Ema

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$13,474
0%
0%
$6,960
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Hone

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,018
0%
0%
$3,455
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Iona

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$4,728
0%
0%
$2,819
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Moke

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,026
0.73%
2%
$1,965
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Keli

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$422
0%
199%
$422
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Olana

Trade
50%
Yes 89¢No 100¢
89¢
N/A
$204
0%
1%
$57
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Pena

Trade
13%
Yes 94¢No 100¢
94¢
N/A
$116
0%
0%
$43
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Ulana

Trade
1%
Yes 63¢No 100¢
63¢
N/A
$983
0%
36%
$359
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Lala

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,103
N/A
N/A
$3,505
1mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Nolo

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$745
N/A
N/A
$226
1mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

Lowell

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
$135
1mo 5d
Yes
Total markets: 13

Description

During the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, tropical storms in the Central Pacific basin will be monitored to determine whether any of a predetermined set of named storms achieve hurricane status between mid-May and early December.

Kalshi

If a storm named Akoni is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Ema is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Hone is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Iona is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Keli is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Lala is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Moke is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Nolo is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Olana is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Pena is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Ulana is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Wale is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the likelihood of various named storms becoming hurricanes. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on complex models and historical data. While both approaches aim to predict the same outcomes, this market provides a real-time, aggregated view of what traders believe will happen. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions can arise from differing interpretations of data, or from traders incorporating information not fully captured in standard forecasts. It’s a dynamic comparison, as both market odds and analyst forecasts evolve.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a named storm will become a hurricane. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price, the greater the perceived chance of the storm reaching hurricane status. This creates a market-driven forecast, distinct from traditional meteorological predictions.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or other recognized meteorological agencies will determine if a named storm in the Central Pacific has reached hurricane status. The resolution will be based on official records of storm classifications, and will reflect whether the named storms met the criteria for hurricane categorization during the specified timeframe. This market will settle based on the official record.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Changes in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting El Niño or La Niña conditions, could shift trader sentiment. The actual formation and track of named storms will be a primary driver, with increased attention focused on storms that approach or enter the Central Pacific. Unexpected shifts in storm intensity, or deviations from predicted paths, could also cause substantial price movements. Any official announcements from the National Hurricane Center regarding storm outlooks or advisories will likely impact trading activity in this market.