TOTAL VOLUME:
$150.1b
24H VOL:
$141,844,315
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,733,993,399
484,032
Markets across
35,818
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,360
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Kyle
- Kalshi
Kyle - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 1, 2026
Latest in Climate and Weather
Will Kyle be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?
$
Intro
This market tracks whether specific named Atlantic tropical storms will reach hurricane strength during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—whether Isaias will be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026—stands at 49.0%, while the secondary outcome for Omar carries 49.0% probability as well. Resolution is determined by the National Hurricane Center's official categorization of storms occurring between May 15, 2026 and December 1, 2026. Watch for the onset of peak Atlantic hurricane season activity in late summer and early fall 2026, when atmospheric conditions typically favor rapid intensification of tropical systems.
Kalshi
If a storm named Arthur is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Bertha is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Cristobal is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Dolly is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Edouard is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Fay is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Gonzalo is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Hanna is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Isaias is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Josephine is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Kyle is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Leah is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Marco is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Nana is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Omar is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Paulette is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Rene is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Sally is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Teddy is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Vicky is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If a storm named Wilfred is a storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a named storm will become a hurricane. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by factors like weather models, expert opinions, and overall market sentiment. This creates a dynamic and informative view of expectations surrounding the Atlantic hurricane season.
This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports will be used to determine if a named storm in the Atlantic has reached hurricane status – defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. The determination will be based on official NHC data and records, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders will then be able to see which predictions proved accurate and how the market responded to evolving conditions.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Changes in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting favorable conditions for hurricane development (warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear), would likely increase prices. The actual formation of named storms, and their subsequent intensification or weakening, will be major catalysts. Unexpected shifts in climate patterns, like a strong El Niño or La Niña event, could also impact market prices. Finally, any major news or reports from meteorological agencies will influence trader sentiment and drive price fluctuations.
'%3e%3ccircle%20cx='26'%20cy='26'%20r='26'%20fill='%23000'/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23fff'%20d='M27.6629%2037.9855L31.004%2037.6925L32.1989%2051.3689C33.72%2051.027%2035.2073%2050.5486%2036.6425%2049.9395V37.8085H40.7697V47.7178C42.4942%2046.577%2044.0775%2045.236%2045.4865%2043.7226L46.0172%2037.6591L49.5548%2037.9678C51.5707%2034.0725%2052.5697%2029.7306%2052.4591%2025.3456C52.3484%2020.9605%2051.1317%2016.6746%2048.9219%2012.886L48.7903%2014.392L44.6631%2014.0303L45.1937%207.97067C43.8569%206.58147%2042.3706%205.34447%2040.7619%204.28222V14.2406H36.6347V2.06247C34.8743%201.313%2033.0358%200.762345%2031.1533%200.420753L32.3463%2014.0637L29.0052%2014.3566L27.7513%200.0314647C27.3308%200.0118035%2026.9062%200%2026.4817%200C24.8262%204.44017e-06%2023.1745%200.157349%2021.5487%200.469906L23.9072%2013.8985L21.364%2014.3468L19.0253%201.0853C16.8454%201.73668%2014.7611%202.67345%2012.8266%203.87129L15.4601%2013.7019L13.4634%2014.2387L11.0146%205.09226C9.12509%206.49278%207.43337%208.1422%205.98527%209.99577L7.26077%2013.5014L5.80446%2014.0322L4.88665%2011.5097C3.41845%2013.6953%202.29182%2016.092%201.54558%2018.6172L1.95829%2018.4678L7.2647%2033.0387L5.80839%2033.5696L1.06407%2020.5303C-0.0225105%2025.6016%200.430464%2030.8821%202.36486%2035.6941C4.29926%2040.5061%207.62683%2044.6301%2011.9206%2047.5369L9.45605%2038.3355L11.4528%2037.7987L14.4677%2049.0567C16.5333%2050.1354%2018.7355%2050.9291%2021.0142%2051.4161L18.6892%2038.1605L21.2343%2037.7122L23.7283%2051.8683C24.6462%2051.9654%2025.5686%2052.014%2026.4916%2052.0138C27.2954%2052.0138%2028.0933%2051.9764%2028.8795%2051.9037L27.6629%2037.9855Z'%20/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20d='M46.0368%2018.1276L50.1542%2018.4875L48.804%2033.9372L44.6768%2033.5774L46.0368%2018.1276ZM36.6484%2018.279H40.7756V33.7858H36.6484V18.279ZM31.0099%2018.1611L32.3601%2033.6109L29.019%2033.9038L27.6668%2018.454L31.0099%2018.1611ZM13.481%2033.7898L9.4698%2018.8099L11.4666%2018.2751L15.4778%2033.2452L13.481%2033.7898ZM21.3817%2033.892L18.6892%2018.6211L21.2343%2018.1729L23.9248%2033.4418L21.3817%2033.892Z'%20/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=avatar}
