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Polymarket:
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51%
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q2 2026?
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$20
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$500
Description
This event group tracks whether US real GDP growth in Q2 2026 will exceed specific thresholds, as measured by the BEA's seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing the same underlying economic metric but with different market structures and threshold definitions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate for Q2 2026 real GDP growth, published July 30, 2026, at https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productCore resolution logic:
- Resolution uses the seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate GDP growth rate for Q2 2026
- Kalshi: Markets resolve Yes if growth exceeds 1.0%, 1.5%, 2.0%, or 2.5% respectively
- Polymarket: Markets resolve based on discrete ranges (less than 1.0%, 1.0-1.5%, 1.5-2.0%, 2.0-2.5%, 2.5-3.0%, 3.0-3.5%, greater than 3.5%)
- When a value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher range bracket applies
- Post-release revisions to GDP data are excluded; only the initial Advance Estimate is used
- If Advance Estimate is not released, the first officially published figure (second or third estimate) becomes the resolution source
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact threshold match: If GDP growth is exactly 1.5%, Polymarket resolves to the higher bracket (1.5-2.0%). Kalshi's 1.5% threshold market resolves Yes.
- Advance Estimate unavailable: If the July 30, 2026 Advance Estimate is not released, resolution uses the first officially published figure from BEA (second or third estimate), or the most recent previous figure if no estimate is released by the next quarter's advance estimate date.
- Post-release revisions: Any GDP revisions published after the Advance Estimate release are explicitly ignored for resolution purposes.
- Data integrity failure: If BEA does not publish any official GDP figure for Q2 2026 by the scheduled date for Q3 2026's Advance Estimate, resolution defaults to the most recent previously released BEA figure.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or shortly after July 30, 2026, when the BEA publishes the Q2 2026 Advance Estimate. Markets settle based on the initial release; subsequent revisions do not affect settlement.Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Kalshi
Real GDP growth for Q2 2026 is measured by the BEA's seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate, reported as a one-decimal place value. Each outcome represents a specific growth threshold, and resolves to Yes if real GDP growth exceeds that threshold. The market closes at 8:29 AM on the expected release date and expires at the first 10:00 AM following the official data release, or 3 months after the expected release date if data is delayed.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market prices reflect aggregated trader expectations rather than traditional economist consensus. As of the latest snapshot, Kalshi implies 45.0% odds for real GDP growth above 2.5%, while Polymarket prices the 2.0%–2.5% band at 27.5%. These market-derived probabilities often diverge from consensus forecasts published by the Federal Reserve, Blue Chip surveys, or Wall Street banks, which tend to lag real-time information and trader positioning. Comparing the two reveals whether markets expect stronger or weaker growth than the prevailing analyst view, making prediction markets a valuable cross-check on macroeconomic outlook.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket attract different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites. Kalshi's regulatory structure and user base may emphasize different growth thresholds than Polymarket's global audience. Outcome definitions also matter: Kalshi's focus on the 2.5% threshold versus Polymarket's 2.0%–2.5% band creates non-overlapping contracts, so direct price comparison requires careful interpretation. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and platform-specific trading incentives can also cause spreads. Additionally, timing of large trades, geopolitical events, or data releases may move one market faster than the other, creating temporary arbitrage windows that sophisticated traders exploit.
Key catalysts for Q2 2026 GDP odds include Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest rate guidance, which shape borrowing costs and consumer spending. Employment data, inflation reports, and wage growth announcements influence recession risk and consumer confidence. Corporate earnings and business investment surveys signal demand strength. Geopolitical shocks, trade policy changes, or fiscal stimulus announcements can rapidly reprrice growth expectations. Leading indicators such as PMI, housing starts, and retail sales in early 2026 provide early signals of Q2 momentum. Finally, revisions to prior-quarter GDP figures may shift baseline expectations, and any major supply-chain disruptions or commodity price swings could alter the growth trajectory heading into summer 2026.
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