TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 09d:02h:21m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Description
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for June 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for June 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on June 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for June 2026, while Polymarket explicitly resolves only on the final release. Preliminary and final readings can differ, creating potential cross-platform settlement misalignment.Hero Tip:
Track both the preliminary ICS release (mid-June, typically) and the final release (June 26, 2026, 10:00 AM ET). If preliminary and final readings diverge across thresholds, Kalshi and Polymarket will resolve to opposite outcomes. Manage your position size and hedge cross-platform exposure accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Resolves on preliminary June 2026 ICS. Offers 15 binary markets, each triggered if preliminary reading exceeds a specific threshold from 42 to 53. Quote: 'If US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 is above [X], then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Resolves on final June 2026 ICS only, explicitly excluding preliminary data. Offers 8 bracket-based markets covering ranges from below 40.0 to at least 55.0. Quote: 'This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.'
Polymarket
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for June 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for June 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on June 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index value released for June 2026. Resolution occurs at different thresholds ranging from above 42.0 to above 53.0, with each threshold representing a separate resolution condition. The official index value determines which threshold conditions are met, with higher readings satisfying all lower thresholds as well.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket aggregate distributed trader beliefs into real-time probabilities, often capturing forward-looking sentiment faster than traditional analyst surveys. While Wall Street economists publish consensus forecasts based on historical models and data releases, prediction markets reflect live risk pricing and can diverge when traders anticipate surprises. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment market lets you compare market-implied odds directly against published analyst ranges, revealing where consensus may be underpricing or overpricing the likelihood of specific outcomes for June 2026.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket attract different trader bases, liquidity profiles, and risk appetites, leading to price variations on the same underlying event. Kalshi may emphasize sentiment above 45.0, while Polymarket focuses on readings below 40.0, creating distinct probability distributions. Differences in platform fees, settlement certainty, user interface, and regulatory environment also influence how traders price uncertainty. These spreads create arbitrage opportunities and reflect genuine disagreement about June 2026 consumer sentiment, making cross-platform comparison valuable for identifying market edges.
The market resolves on Jun 26, 2026, coinciding with the University of Michigan's preliminary release of the June 2026 Consumer Sentiment Index. The actual published index value determines which outcome occurs, settling all positions based on whether the reading meets or exceeds the specified threshold. Traders should monitor the official University of Michigan survey release schedule and any revisions to preliminary data that may follow. Resolution is objective and tied directly to the published economic statistic.
Key catalysts include Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest rate changes, employment reports, inflation data, stock market performance, and consumer spending releases. Geopolitical shocks, credit market stress, or unexpected fiscal policy announcements can also shift consumer confidence rapidly. Real-time consumer surveys, housing starts, and retail sales figures may preview sentiment shifts ahead of the June preliminary release. Earnings season and wage growth announcements influence household financial expectations. Traders monitoring these leading indicators can anticipate moves in University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment odds before the official June 2026 data arrives.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.