TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$131,483,547

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,200,781,395

338,101

Markets across

34,156

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,657

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Science and Technology
Total space launches in August
kalshi

Total space launches in August

Aug 17, 2026, 10:00 PM EST - Sep 7, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$36,012
Volume 24h:
$1,934
16%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$17,662
4%

Above 13

 - Kalshi

Above 13 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 7, 2026

Time left: 10d:18h:51m

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in August 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 10 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 13

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$11,432
0%
222%
$6,863
1w 3d 18h
active
kalshi

Above 14

Trade
93%
1%
Yes 94¢No 10¢
4¢
N/A
$3,085
6%
111%
$1,759
1w 3d 18h
active
kalshi

Above 15

Trade
64%
15%
Yes 65¢No 43¢
8¢
N/A
$4,741
9%
1,344%
$2,001
1w 3d 18h
active
kalshi

Above 20

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$7,448
0.07%
148,859%
$4,005
1w 3d 18h
active
kalshi

Above 16

Trade
1%
8%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$7,299
23%
591%
$2,393
1w 3d 18h
active
kalshi

Above 17

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$1,712
0%
6,484%
$443
1w 3d 18h
active
kalshi

Above 18

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$241
0%
11,958%
$146
1w 3d 18h
active
kalshi

Above 19

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$53
0%
1,667%
$53
1w 3d 18h
active
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the number of space launches conducted by U.S.-licensed commercial operators during August 2026. It focuses on the overall activity level of the commercial space sector within a specific month. The outcome depends on whether the total launches exceed various thresholds.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the total number of space launches conducted by all U.S.-licensed commercial operators exceeds specified thresholds during August 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, resolving to 'Yes' if the combined launches surpass that threshold. All launches are evaluated based on Eastern Time to standardize timing across different time zones. Notably, certain missions recorded under UTC time, such as the SpaceX Starlink Group 17-52 mission, are excluded from qualifying for the month of August. The resolution hinges on the aggregate launch count meeting or exceeding each respective threshold, with time zone conversions ensuring consistent period allocation.