TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Intro
This market tracks the total runs scored in the MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET, specifically whether the combined score will exceed 4.5 runs. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, the consensus probability stands at 100.0% for the over outcome, with resolution determined by official MLB statistics. Watch for the final official box score posted by MLB within 24 hours of game completion on June 23, 2026, which will settle all run-total markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's winner market contains a logical contradiction: it resolves to Yes for both possible outcomes (Toronto win OR Boston win), leaving no valid resolution path for a No outcome. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable and indicates a data integrity failure.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's winner market. The resolution logic is broken. Use Polymarket or Predict instead, which both correctly define mutually exclusive outcomes (Toronto wins vs. Boston wins) with consistent edge-case handling (postponement, cancellation, tie = 50-50).Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary winner market: resolves to Toronto Blue Jays if Toronto wins, Boston Red Sox if Boston wins. Postponements keep market open; cancellations/ties resolve 50-50. Primary source: Official MLB statistics within 24 hours or credible reporting consensus.Kalshi:
Market resolves to Yes if Toronto wins the game originally scheduled for Jun 16, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT. Market also resolves to Yes if Boston wins the same game. No resolution path to No exists under normal outcomes.Predict:
Binary winner market: resolves to Toronto Blue Jays if Toronto wins, Boston Red Sox if Boston wins. Postponements keep market open; cancellations/ties resolve 50-50. Primary source: Official MLB statistics within 24 hours or credible reporting consensus.
Polymarket
In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for June 16 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Kalshi
This event covers the Toronto vs Boston professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT. The market resolves based on the final result of the game, with separate outcomes for each team's victory. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two days of the original date. Should the game be cancelled entirely or rescheduled more than two days beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price determined in accordance with established resolution procedures.
Predict
In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for June 16 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes through fundamentally different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, often incorporating a built-in margin. Prediction markets, by contrast, rely on trader consensus—the collective belief of participants willing to stake capital. This market reflects what informed traders actually believe will happen, unfiltered by a bookmaker's profit motive. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbook lines can reveal arbitrage opportunities or signal where public perception diverges from professional betting markets.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity profiles, and fee structures, which naturally produces price variation. Kalshi may draw more sophisticated arbitrageurs, while Polymarket might reflect a broader retail audience. Differences in market depth, trading hours, and platform-specific incentives also influence how quickly new information is priced in. These gaps typically narrow as traders exploit mispricings, but temporary divergences create opportunities for those monitoring both venues closely.
This market resolves around , with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will reflect the actual conclusion of the matchup as documented by authoritative sports sources. Until that point, prices will fluctuate based on team news, injury updates, betting action, and other factors that shift trader expectations. Resolution is automatic once the event concludes and the outcome is publicly established.
Key catalysts include roster changes, injury announcements, recent team performance trends, and head-to-head historical matchups. Starting pitcher assignments often trigger sharp repricing, as do lineup adjustments or trades. Weather conditions at game time can also influence outcomes, particularly for baseball. Breaking news about player availability, trades, or coaching decisions will likely shift prices. Monitor team social media, official league announcements, and sports news outlets for developments that could reshape trader conviction before the final pitch.
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