TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
polymarket

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$97,406
Volume 24h:
$2,733
36%
Liquidity:
$13,450
6%
Open interest:
$5,244N/A

Meta

 - Polymarket

Meta - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:17h:43m

Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?

74%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 75.1¢ buys you 133 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $133 | Net Profit: $33 Multiplier: 1.33x | ROI: 33% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Meta

Trade
74%
18%
Yes 75.1¢No 26.5¢
1.6¢
$505
$8,882
13%
144%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
17%
5%
Yes 18¢No 84.6¢
2.6¢
$898
$12,349
3%
81%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 7.3¢No 99¢
6.3¢
$470
$2,989
2%
19%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 5.1¢No 99.5¢
4.6¢
$545
$3,348
3%
104%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.7¢No 99.2¢
2.9¢
$655
$7,226
0.54%
8%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
2%
7%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.6¢
3.5¢
$464
$3,331
1%
23%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Google

Trade
2%
Yes 2.9¢No 99¢
1.9¢
$474
$14,658
1%
5%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Tencent

Trade
2%
3%
Yes 2.3¢No 99.3¢
1.6¢
$471
$3,072
2%
77%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Microsoft

Trade
2%
4%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.4¢
1.8¢
$308
$3,499
1%
254%
N/A
4d 5h 44m
active
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.5¢
1.6¢
$658
$13,620
0.29%
3%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Mistral

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
—
$724
$1,489
0%
3%
N/A
4d 5h 44m
active
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.8¢
0.6¢
$834
$3,100
4%
141%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
0.5¢
$621
$2,736
1%
92%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Bytedance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$761
$3,052
2%
174%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Meituan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$1,212
$2,644
2%
16%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Nvidia

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$1,291
$2,334
2%
20%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$517
$2,215
2%
24%
N/A
4d 5h 44m
active
polymarket

MiniMax

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$765
$2,186
2%
133%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

StepFun

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$719
$1,653
2%
292%
N/A
4d 17h 43m
active
polymarket

Amazon

Trade
0%
4%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.5¢
—
$560
$3,023
13%
510%
N/A
4d 5h 44m
active
Total markets: 20

Description

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Text Arena Math AI Lab rankings market on Polymarket tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $2,781. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes in this market, offering a visual representation of market sentiment and activity over time.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean toward certain expectations based on recent performance and expert insights, this market’s pricing captures the collective bet of traders, which can diverge significantly. Monitoring both can provide a broader view of market expectations and potential shifts in sentiment leading up to Nov 1, 2026.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through trader bets that adjust continuously based on new information and shifting expectations. The current top outcome has a chance of 74.3%, reflecting the aggregate wisdom of participants on that platform. Price movements are driven by trading volume and any emerging signals about the ranking.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official Text Arena Math AI Lab rankings released at that time, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution for all participants.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Key updates from the Text Arena Math AI Lab, such as new benchmark results, leadership changes, or public announcements, may influence trader sentiment. Additionally, broader industry trends, competitor performance, and any high-profile evaluations or reviews could impact pricing as the community reassesses probabilities.