TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Total volume:
$4,375,367
Volume 24h:
$758,819N/A
Liquidity:
$776,372
2%
Open interest:
$171,798N/A

$800M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?

2%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 3.5¢ buys you 2,857 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $2,857 | Net Profit: $2,757 Multiplier: 28.57x | ROI: 2,757% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$800M

Trade
2%
Yes 3.5¢No 98.6¢
2.1¢
$52,190
$362,136
0.24%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$800M

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 97.7¢
0.1¢
$54,319
$225,542
0%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.4%
Yes 3¢No 98.2¢
Avg: 1.1¢Max: 2.1¢
predict

$200M

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98¢
0.1¢
$59,613
$229,138
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$200M

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99¢
0.7¢
$20,985
$64,631
0%
0.75%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.9%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.7¢
polymarket

$1B

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 98¢
0.4¢
$42,721
$467,441
0.03%
0.73%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$1B

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 98.8¢
0.2¢
$48,235
$205,205
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.9%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.4¢
Avg: 0.3¢Max: 0.4¢
polymarket

$3B

Trade
3%
Yes 3.3¢No 97.9¢
1.2¢
$42,011
$198,986
0.03%
0.17%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$3B

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.1¢
0.1¢
$46,764
$172,614
0.12%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.9%
Yes 2.2¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1.2¢
predict

$400M

Trade
2%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.4¢
0.3¢
$66,169
$75,369
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$400M

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99¢
0.5¢
$18,392
$52,887
0%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.6%
Yes 1.7¢No 98.7¢
Avg: 0.4¢Max: 0.5¢
polymarket

$5B

Trade
2%
Yes 2.6¢No 98.6¢
1.2¢
$46,832
$130,575
0%
0.85%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$5B

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 98.8¢
0.2¢
$62,492
$731,345
0.03%
0.33%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.4%
Yes 2¢No 98.7¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1.2¢
polymarket

$100M

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.4¢
1.1¢
$761
$20,839
0.49%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$2B

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 98.9¢
0.1¢
$50,208
$234,467
0%
0.64%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$2B

Trade
1%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.8¢
1.6¢
$21,547
$169,519
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1.6¢
polymarket

$50M

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.3¢
0.2¢
$853
$58,878
0%
6%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$7B

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$56,553
$320,028
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$7B

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$18,433
$73,333
0%
0.47%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.7%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

$10B

Trade
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
0.1¢
$18,005
$190,368
0%
0.21%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$10B

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$49,288
$392,066
0.51%
0.53%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks the probability of StandX’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) being above $50M one day after its token launch. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Predict indicates a 63.0% probability of this outcome, based on data from the most liquid price source available. These markets rely on identifying a public, tradable launch and then determining the FDV at 4:00 PM ET the following day. Keep an eye on whether StandX launches a tradable token by December 31, 2026, as outlined in the resolution rules, which will determine if these markets resolve at all.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict utilize identical resolution criteria, including the definition of 'launch', the resolution time, and the fallback condition for no launch by December 31, 2026.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available

Core resolution logic:

  • The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
  • Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if the FDV is greater than the specified threshold at the resolution time.
  • If StandX does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Public Launch: If StandX does not launch a publicly tradable token by December 31, 2026, all markets will resolve to 'No'.
  • Launch Timing: The 'day following launch' is clearly defined as the calendar day after the launch, with resolution occurring at 4:00 PM ET. Any launch occurring after 4:00 PM ET will have its FDV assessed the *next* calendar day.
  • FDV Calculation: The resolution source is the 'most liquid price source available'. This implies a reliance on market data and could introduce some subjectivity in determining the precise FDV.
Timing: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the StandX token's public, tradable launch, or December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no launch occurs.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, the StandX FDV market dashboard tracks predictions on whether the fully diluted valuation of StandX will be above a certain threshold one day after its launch. Currently, this market aggregates data showing a consensus view of approximately 2.7% on Polymarket and 2.4% on Predict. Total volume across both platforms is $4,375,367, with $5,146 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and participate in forecasting the future FDV of StandX.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, represent the collective wisdom of traders regarding the probability of a future event. Unlike spot price expectations which reflect current market value, this market focuses on a future valuation – StandX’s FDV one day after launch. The price of a 'yes' share in this market can be interpreted as the probability that StandX’s FDV will exceed the specified level. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and other forecasts can arise from differing information sets, analytical approaches, or simply market biases.

Prices for this market may differ between Polymarket and Predict due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and risk preferences, which can lead to varying levels of demand for different outcomes. Currently, Polymarket currently favors StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? at 2.7%, while Predict leans toward StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? at 2.4%. Additionally, differing liquidity and trading fees on each platform can influence price discovery and create temporary arbitrage opportunities.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the StandX fully diluted valuation (FDV) one day after the official launch date. The FDV will be determined by publicly available data sources and assessed against the conditions outlined in the market description. Traders should monitor official StandX announcements and reputable cryptocurrency data aggregators for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from the StandX team regarding partnerships, technological advancements, or user adoption could shift market sentiment. Broader market trends in the cryptocurrency space, such as overall bullish or bearish momentum, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected regulatory developments or security breaches related to StandX or its underlying technology could cause substantial price fluctuations. Monitoring news sources, social media, and on-chain data will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts.