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South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?
kalshi

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?

Aug 12, 2026, 12:47 PM EST - Aug 25, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$3,103,774
Volume 24h:
$24,426
98%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$2,204,245
0.95%

Darline Graham, 3-6%

 - Kalshi

Darline Graham, 3-6% - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 25, 2027

Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 3% and 6%?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 363 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Darline Graham, 3-6%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$321,870
0.82%
1,294%
$191,028
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Darline Graham, 0-3%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$285,930
4%
1,199%
$188,726
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Darline Graham, 6-9%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$274,987
0.26%
1,517%
$198,244
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Darline Graham, 9-12%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$243,570
2%
3,332%
$159,438
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Ralph Norman, 0-3%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$228,123
0.04%
663%
$166,952
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Ralph Norman, 12-15%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$220,056
0%
328%
$131,214
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Ralph Norman, 3-6%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$212,248
0.04%
580%
$158,289
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Ralph Norman, 9-12%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$189,900
0%
288%
$124,318
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Ralph Norman, 6-9%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$175,332
2%
355%
$113,448
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Darline Graham, 12-15%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$149,750
0.23%
1,452%
$101,489
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Darline Graham, 15-18%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$148,728
0.03%
1,195%
$136,300
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Darline Graham, 18-21%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$136,082
0%
1,176%
$125,409
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Ralph Norman, 15-18%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$131,338
0%
119%
$105,597
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Ralph Norman, ≥24%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$94,764
0%
96%
$76,995
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Ralph Norman, 21-24%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$91,923
0%
57%
$84,283
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Darline Graham, ≥24%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$83,075
3%
187%
$56,673
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Ralph Norman, 18-21%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$79,612
0%
117%
$61,838
12mo 3d
active
kalshi

Darline Graham, 21-24%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$36,487
4%
80%
$24,005
12mo 3d
active
Total markets: 18

Description

The 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff will determine the party's nominee for the Senate seat. This event focuses on predicting the margin of victory for two leading candidates, Darline Graham and Ralph Norman, by categorizing the difference in their vote shares into specific percentage ranges.

Kalshi

The event determines the winning market based on the margin of victory for either Darline Graham or Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff. The margin of victory is calculated as the difference in vote share between the candidate and the runner-up if the candidate wins, or between the candidate and the winner if the candidate loses. A tie for first place results in a zero margin. Each market corresponds to a specific percentage range for the margin of victory, inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound, with no rounding applied. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or listings, all votes for that candidate are summed. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the candidate and specified range if their margin falls within that range; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.