TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Next Prime Minister of Sweden
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Total volume:
$10,678,744
Volume 24h:
$31,318
61%
Liquidity:
$1,215,750
0.8%
Open interest:
$63,400
0.22%

Magdalena Andersson

all

3 markets

Predict

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

79%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99.5¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 79% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 0.5% | APY: 0.74% 246 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Magdalena Andersson

Trade
79%
Yes 99.5¢No 40.7¢
40.2¢
$34,433
$5,027
0.23%
0.56%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
kalshi

Magdalena Andersson

Trade
74%
3%
Yes 74¢No 27¢
1¢
N/A
$63,057
0.22%
12%
$19,405
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

Magdalena Andersson

Trade
72%
1%
Yes 72¢No 29¢
1¢
$59,380
$2,788,838
0.65%
4%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
71.6%
Yes 81.8¢No 32.2¢
Avg: 14.1¢Max: 40.2¢
polymarket

Ulf Kristersson

Trade
23%
1%
Yes 24.8¢No 78.4¢
3.2¢
$42,093
$2,057,265
0.24%
2%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Ulf Kristersson

Trade
21%
Yes 24¢No 79¢
3¢
N/A
$86,318
0.01%
0.28%
$38,452
1y 2mo
active
predict

Ulf Kristersson

Trade
20%
9%
Yes 39.8¢No 99.4¢
39.2¢
$29,949
$6,745
0%
0%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
23.1%
Yes 29.5¢No 85.6¢
Avg: 15.1¢Max: 39.2¢
kalshi

Ebba Busch

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 98¢
4¢
N/A
$4,277
0.02%
0.02%
$3,757
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

Ebba Busch

Trade
3%
Yes 3.3¢No 97¢
0.3¢
$29,716
$939,054
0.02%
1%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Ebba Busch

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$34,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.2%
Yes 4.7¢No 97.5¢
Avg: 2.2¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
0.5¢
$54,718
$580,263
0.47%
6%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$34,767
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.5¢
kalshi

Jimmie Åkesson

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,983
0%
0%
$1,786
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

Jimmie Åkesson

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$50,705
$1,940,249
0.08%
0.23%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Jimmie Åkesson

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$34,536
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Nooshi Dadgostar

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$151,054
$1,042,286
0%
0.1%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Nooshi Dadgostar

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$34,737
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Simona Mohamsson

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$116,914
$376,134
1%
1%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Simona Mohamsson

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$34,897
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Daniel Helldén

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$167,752
$339,111
0.01%
0.01%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Daniel Helldén

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$34,622
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Anna-Karin Hatt

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$22,605
$312,433
0.01%
0.01%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Anna-Karin Hatt

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$34,715
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Amanda Lind

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$178,557
$135,705
0.01%
0.01%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Amanda Lind

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$34,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market tracks which politician will become the next Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 parliamentary elections, resolving to the first individual officially appointed and assuming office. Currently, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict traders collectively assign an 86.5% probability to Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden, with credible reporting potentially used as a secondary source. Keep an eye on January 1, 2028, as this is the date Kalshi uses to determine if a candidate has become Prime Minister following the 2026 elections.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi has an earlier resolution deadline (Jan 1, 2028) than Polymarket and Predict (June 30, 2027), potentially leading to different outcomes.Hero tip: Consider the differing deadlines when trading. Kalshi may resolve sooner, but has a higher risk of resolving to 'No' if a Prime Minister isn't confirmed quickly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the next individual who officially assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 election. If no PM is appointed by June 30, 2027, it resolves to 'Other'. "If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
  • Kalshi: Resolves if a candidate becomes Prime Minister *before* January 1, 2028. "If [candidate] becomes Prime Minister of Sweden as a result of government formation following the 2026 Swedish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

A candidate resolves to Yes if they become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 general election through proper constitutional procedures before January 1, 2028. The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to Sweden's constitutional requirements and must command the confidence of parliament through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention. Critically, they must exercise the full powers of the office and not serve merely in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government. The appointment must directly result from the government formation process following the 2026 election. Interim arrangements do not qualify—serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government without completing investiture, leading the party with the most seats without actually forming government, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations all fail to meet resolution criteria. If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No unless a "No one" option exists. If new elections are called before government formation completes, markets resolve immediately. For rotating prime ministerial arrangements, the first person to satisfy all criteria resolves to Yes. If a candidate dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price while their successor may still resolve to Yes. Candidates not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if available.

Predict

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the Swedish Prime Minister market, aggregating trading activity to show a consensus view of who will become the next Prime Minister of Sweden. Currently, the total volume across both platforms is $10,678,704, with $25,916 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to see where the crowd is placing its bets and understand the implied probabilities for each potential candidate. The dashboard provides a unified view of this market, combining insights from multiple prediction venues.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *put their money* on. This can lead to divergences, as market prices incorporate not just who is currently favored, but also perceived probabilities of unexpected events or shifts in public opinion. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes outperforming polls, particularly in forecasting election outcomes and other real-world events. This market provides a real-time assessment of the likely next Prime Minister.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to several factors. Trading volume varies between the platforms, influencing price discovery. Different user bases may have varying information or beliefs, leading to distinct market valuations. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Additionally, the specific rules and fee structures of each platform can affect trading behavior and, consequently, prices. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? at 71.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Magdalena Andersson become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 Swedish general election? at 74.0%, illustrating these potential discrepancies within the Swedish Prime Minister market.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which individual is officially appointed as the Prime Minister of Sweden. The platform will verify this information against widely accepted sources, such as official government announcements and news agencies. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to understand how the market is likely to settle. The final outcome will reflect the individual holding the office at the relevant time.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments in Sweden, such as shifts in party leadership, unexpected election results, or changes in coalition negotiations, would likely cause price fluctuations. Economic indicators, like unemployment rates or GDP growth, could also influence perceptions of the leading candidates. Public statements from key political figures and significant media coverage could also move the market. Any event that alters the perceived probability of a candidate becoming Prime Minister has the potential to drive trading activity and change the odds in this market.