TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$142,891,824

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,211,057,904

339,560

Markets across

34,155

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,672

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Next Prime Minister of Sweden
polymarket
kalshi

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Total volume:
$4,234,923
Volume 24h:
$85,226
39%
Liquidity:
$1,263,053
0.24%
Open interest:
$6,624
0.3%

Green Party

 - Kalshi

Green Party - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 21, 2026

Will Green Party be a part of the next government in Sweden?

85%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 83¢ buys you 120 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $120 | Net Profit: $20 Multiplier: 1.20x | ROI: 20% | APY: 244% 54 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Green Party

Trade
85%
4%
Yes 83¢No 19¢
2¢
N/A
$763
1%
250%
$381
1mo 3w 3d
active
polymarket

Magdalena Andersson

Trade
83%
5%
Yes 84¢No 18¢
2¢
$80,312
$296,278
8%
51%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
kalshi

Swedish Social Democratic Party

Trade
82%
Yes 89¢No 18¢
7¢
N/A
$342
48%
0%
$137
1mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Left Party

Trade
61%
6%
Yes 68¢No 39¢
7¢
N/A
$871
14%
253%
$640
1mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Centre Party

Trade
57%
Yes 64¢No 44¢
8¢
N/A
$468
0.65%
1%
$425
1mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Christian Democrats

Trade
23%
Yes 29¢No 76¢
5¢
N/A
$2,394
0%
92%
$763
1mo 3w 3d
active
polymarket

Ulf Kristersson

Trade
16%
Yes 17¢No 85¢
2¢
$78,991
$235,597
5%
34%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
kalshi

Liberals

Trade
11%
Yes 10¢No 92¢
2¢
N/A
$3,784
0%
87%
$2,786
1mo 3w 3d
active
kalshi

Sweden Democrats

Trade
8%
Yes 12¢No 91¢
3¢
N/A
$2,386
0%
0%
$1,492
1mo 3w 3d
active
polymarket

Jimmie Åkesson

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.5¢
0.4¢
$113,420
$1,491,769
0.64%
5%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
polymarket

Ebba Busch

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.7¢
0.3¢
$104,327
$416,744
3%
16%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
polymarket

Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$136,237
$161,097
4%
28%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
polymarket

Nooshi Dadgostar

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$146,671
$972,910
0.5%
3%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
polymarket

Daniel Helldén

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$145,732
$300,506
2%
10%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
polymarket

Simona Mohamsson

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$150,582
$148,907
3%
25%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
polymarket

Amanda Lind

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$153,334
$103,222
4%
40%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
polymarket

Anna-Karin Hatt

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$153,448
$96,885
5%
45%
N/A
2w 2d 4h
active
kalshi

Moderate Party

Trade
N/A
N/A
8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 3w 3d
active
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group tracks the outcome of Sweden's next parliamentary elections scheduled for September 13, 2026, focusing on identifying who will officially assume the role of Prime Minister following the election. The markets cover multiple potential candidates and coalition scenarios.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Settlement Scope Mismatch (Individual vs Coalition)Hero tip: Traders should be aware that these markets resolve on fundamentally different criteria — one focuses on the individual officeholder, while the other focuses on coalition composition. Bets should be placed accordingly based on which outcome you are predicting.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. 'Other' applies if no candidate assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Uses official information from the Government of Sweden with credible reporting as backup.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if specified parties (Social Democrats, Sweden Democrats, Moderates, Left Party, Centre Party, Christian Democrats, Green Party, Liberals) are included in the coalition forming the next elected ruling government before Jan 1, 2028. Each market is independent for each party.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

A market resolves to Yes if the named party holds at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in Sweden's first official, stable government formed after the September 13, 2026 general election, with resolution occurring before January 1, 2028. Parties must be part of the ruling coalition—not merely external supporters—and must have representatives in ministerial roles (statsråd). Caretaker governments and transitional administrations are excluded. If an extraordinary election occurs due to repeated rejections of proposed Prime Ministers, the first government formed after that election applies. Markets resolve No if no qualifying government forms by the deadline. Party identification considers legal continuity; dissolved parties or merged entities do not count unless they undergo a legal name change without altering their underlying organization.