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Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
polymarket

Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?

Jul 30, 2026, 4:02 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$174,484
Volume 24h:
$0
100%
Liquidity:
$2,793
87%
Open interest:
$17,505N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?

5%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 6.5¢ buys you 1,538 shares | Odds: 5% Total Payout: $1,538 | Net Profit: $1,438 Multiplier: 15.38x | ROI: 1,438% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
5%
Yes 6.5¢No 96.4¢
2.9¢
$2,793
$108,313
0%
0.63%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,171
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital. A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital. Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital. A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital. Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Situational Awareness wind-down market shows current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $5. It provides a real-time view of trader sentiment and liquidity for this market, helping users monitor how the market evaluates the likelihood of various outcomes as they unfold.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced interpretation of events. Analysts may incorporate longer-term considerations or qualitative factors that aren’t captured in the market price. Traders react quickly to new signals, which can cause the market odds to diverge from traditional forecasts, especially when fresh information emerges.

On Polymarket, traders determine the odds through active buying and selling of contracts. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current probability reflects collective expectations about when Situational Awareness will announce its fund wind-down. Volume of $5 over the last 24 hours shows trader interest, while the top outcome’s chance sits at 5.1%. Market depth and recent trades shape the price dynamics as participants bet on different timelines.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will depend on official announcements or widely reported news that clearly indicate the status of the fund wind-down, removing any ambiguity for market settlement.

Several developments could shift this market before Jan 1, 2027. Official statements from Situational Awareness about timeline adjustments, funding updates, or project closures would directly impact pricing. Media coverage highlighting regulatory changes, partnership news, or leadership transitions may also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, broader industry trends affecting similar organizations can create ripple effects, causing rapid shifts in perceived probabilities and market activity.