TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Second-best AI Lab end of October?
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Second-best AI Lab end of October?

Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$74,735
Volume 24h:
$324
37%
Liquidity:
$31,095
28%
Open interest:
$7,466N/A

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:05h:45m

Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?

87%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
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Trade on Polymarket

At 87¢ buys you 115 shares | Odds: 87% Total Payout: $115 | Net Profit: $15 Multiplier: 1.15x | ROI: 15% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
87%
2%
Yes 87¢No 14¢
1¢
$610
$19,002
0.24%
9%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Google

10%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
$4,087
$20,763
1%
13%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Meta

3%
Yes 5.2¢No 99.5¢
4.7¢
$1,116
$6,840
0%
4%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Moonshot

1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.8¢
0.6¢
$943
$2,284
0%
15%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Alibaba

0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$1,426
$2,629
0%
11%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$1,146
$1,945
0%
16%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$1,451
$779
0%
7%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
0.5¢
$1,505
$2,693
0%
19%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$1,094
$2,365
1%
15%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Nvidia

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,486
$551
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

OpenAI

0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$1,511
$2,234
0%
13%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Amazon

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,459
$716
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Thinky

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,478
$2,256
0%
9%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,348
$1,979
0%
14%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Tencent

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,370
$1,350
0%
4%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,870
$1,835
0.05%
3%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Mistral

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,246
$1,128
0.11%
5%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

MiniMax

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,438
$967
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,498
$922
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,435
$789
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
polymarket

Microsoft

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,578
$710
0%
0%
N/A
4d 5h 45m
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the second-best AI Lab market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $895. It shows how traders are pricing the likelihood of different AI labs being ranked second-best by the end of October, with charts illustrating recent trends and overall volume of $74,735.

Compared to analyst forecasts, odds from this market often reflect a more nuanced or forward-looking view. Where analysts may issue broad rankings or probability estimates based on recent performance, traders in this market incorporate real-time data, sentiment shifts, and upcoming milestones. This can lead to divergence — for example, if a lab announces a major partnership, this market may rapidly adjust before analyst reports catch up.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The ranking will be determined by widely accepted industry metrics — such as funding rounds, research publications, product launches, and expert evaluations — aggregated from reputable sources at that time.

Key signals that could shift this market include major funding announcements, high-impact research publications, leadership changes at competing labs, or significant product demos. Positive or negative press coverage, partnerships, and analyst upgrades may also influence trader sentiment. Any event that alters perceptions of a lab’s capabilities or market position relative to its peers can cause rapid price adjustments.