TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
PGA Tour: U.S. Open Top 20? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 18d:00h:28m
U.S. Open: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?
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Intro
This market group tracks whether individual professional golfers will finish in the top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open tournament. Scottie Scheffler has the highest consensus probability across aggregated data from Kalshi and Polymarket, standing at 72.0% to finish top 20. Resolution will be determined by official PGA Tour website records. Watch for the conclusion of the 2026 U.S. Open on July 5, 2026, when final leaderboard positions will be confirmed and all top-20 finish markets will settle.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/)Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves Yes if the named player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open, including all tied positions
- Market resolves No if the named player finishes outside the top 20 (21st place or worse)
- Market resolves No if the named player misses the cut, withdraws, or does not compete
- Market resolves No if final official results are not published by June 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Official PGA Tour published results are the sole arbiter of final finishing position
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tied Finishes: Players tied for 20th place or better all resolve to Yes. Ties are explicitly included in the resolution criteria on both platforms.
- Missed Cut: If a player misses the cut, they do not finish in the top 20 and the market resolves No.
- Withdrawal or Non-Participation: If a player withdraws before completion or does not compete, the market resolves No.
- Results Delay: If official PGA Tour results are not published by June 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve No.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon publication of official final results by the PGA Tour, with a hard deadline of June 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled for mid-June 2026.Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by June 27, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Kalshi
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Daniel Berger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Keegan Bradley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Brennan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sam Burns finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Laurie Canter finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Patrick Cantlay finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hamilton Coleman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Corey Conners finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pierceson Coody finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jason Day finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nicolas Echavarria finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harris English finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ethan Fang finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alex Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ben Griffin finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harry Hall finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brian Harman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Russell Henley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lucas Herbert finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jackson Herrington finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brandon Holtz finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mason Howell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dustin Johnson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Keefer finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kurt Kitayama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jake Knapp finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jackson Koivun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alex Noren finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Carlos Ortiz finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If David Puig finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mateo Pulcini finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kristoffer Reitan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Patrick Rodgers finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Adrien Saddier finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jayden Trey Schaper finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matti Schmid finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Adam Scott finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sam Stevens finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nick Taylor finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gary Woodland finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sudarshan Yellamaraju finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cameron Young finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Filippo Celli finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ugo Coussaud finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Angel Hidalgo finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matthew Jordan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nathan Kimsey finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Niklas Norgaard Moller finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rocco Repetto Taylor finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cooper Dossey finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If T.K. Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Graeme McDowell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Manav Shah finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jimmy Stanger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Caleb Surratt finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Peter Uihlein finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ryuichi Oiwa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kaito Onishi finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Taihei Sato finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes. If Preston Stout finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. Traders buy and sell shares representing outcomes, and prices emerge from supply and demand. This mechanism often reflects sharper, more dynamic pricing than traditional sportsbooks because participants have direct financial incentive to correct mispricings. However, sportsbooks may offer tighter liquidity on major events, while prediction markets excel at pricing niche outcomes or longer-dated events where consensus is still forming. Comparing both sources helps identify value and validate your own assessment.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Kalshi and Polymarket may also have slightly different market rules, minimum order sizes, or settlement timelines that influence how traders price risk. Additionally, one platform may see larger volume on a specific golfer outcome, moving the price away from the other venue's consensus. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but gaps can persist if transaction costs or withdrawal friction make cross-platform trading inefficient. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispriced outcomes.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the U.S. Open tournament concludes and final leaderboard standings are confirmed. The outcome is determined by whether each golfer finishes in the top 20 of the official tournament results, verified against credible public sources. Traders holding shares in a golfer who finishes top 20 receive full payout; those betting against that outcome receive nothing. Markets typically settle within hours of the final round, allowing quick payouts and capital redeployment to subsequent events.
Major catalysts include recent tournament results, course conditions, weather forecasts, and injury reports on key contenders. A golfer's recent form—particularly wins or top-10 finishes on similar courses—can shift odds significantly. Changes in field composition, such as late withdrawals or surprise entries, also influence pricing. Media narratives around momentum, course fit, and head-to-head matchups drive retail trader sentiment. Additionally, any shifts in odds on Kalshi or Polymarket can cascade across both platforms as arbitrageurs rebalance. Monitoring golf news, practice round reports, and pre-tournament analysis helps anticipate these moves.
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