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484,032

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VS.

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Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?
kalshi

Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?

Apr 1, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 2, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$60,195
Volume 24h:
$212
56%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$19,102
0.72%

Above 10

 - Kalshi

Above 10 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 2, 2026

Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

43%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 44¢ buys you 227 shares | Odds: 43% Total Payout: $227 | Net Profit: $127 Multiplier: 2.27x | ROI: 127% APY not meaningful 36 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 10

Trade
43%
Yes 44¢No 60¢
4¢
N/A
$24,079
0.6%
36%
$6,895
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 12

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$7,356
0.66%
3%
$2,275
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 14

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$8,504
0.23%
3%
$3,454
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 25

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$216
0%
0%
$171
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 16

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$8,238
0%
2%
$3,223
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 18

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$10,314
0%
2%
$2,359
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 30

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$829
0%
0%
$499
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 20

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$659
0%
0%
$228
1mo 6d
active
Total markets: 8

Description

During 2026, the Atlantic hurricane season will produce various hurricanes that meet or exceed Category 1 intensity as monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the count of Atlantic tropical storms recorded by NOAA's National Hurricane Center between January 1, 2026 and December 1, 2026, where tropical storms are defined as systems with maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or above. The market resolves Yes if the total exceeds any of the specified thresholds: 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 25, or 30 storms. Each threshold represents a separate resolution condition, with higher thresholds indicating more active storm seasons. The market expires at the sooner of the event occurrence or one day after December 1, 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, many seasonal forecasts from meteorological organizations predict an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, though specific numbers vary. These forecasts are based on complex climate models and historical data. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective judgment of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those from traditional sources, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and subjective interpretations. The market offers a real-time assessment of potential outcomes, dynamically adjusting as new information becomes available, unlike static analyst predictions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices for contracts representing different outcomes. Traders are incentivized to offer prices that accurately reflect their beliefs about the likelihood of each scenario. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. As more trades occur, the market price converges towards a consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the potential for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

This market resolves around Dec 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final count of named tropical storms in the Atlantic basin during the 2026 season is verifiable from credible public reporting. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the primary source for official storm data, and their reports will be used to determine the number of storms that occurred. The resolution will be based on the official NHC storm reports, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the final result for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and resolution. Early seasonal forecasts released in the spring of 2026 will likely cause price adjustments. The development of El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which strongly influence Atlantic hurricane activity, will be a key driver. Unexpected changes in sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, particularly in the Main Development Region, could also shift the market. Finally, any major advancements in hurricane forecasting technology or changes in climate patterns could impact traders’ assessments and move this market.