TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
polymarket

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

Oct 2, 2026, 6:15 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$380,418
Volume 24h:
$57,730
12%
Liquidity:
$28,822
79%
Open interest:
$20,332N/A

No release by October 31

 - Polymarket

No release by October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 04d:17h:47m

Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?

72%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 73.3¢ buys you 136 shares | Odds: 72% Total Payout: $136 | Net Profit: $36 Multiplier: 1.36x | ROI: 36% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No release by October 31

Trade
72%
2%
Yes 73.3¢No 29.4¢
2.7¢
$5,023
$121,520
9%
126%
N/A
4d 17h 47m
active
polymarket

October 27

18%
5%
Yes 19.8¢No 83¢
2.8¢
$4,510
$40,409
12%
354%
N/A
17h 47m
active
polymarket

October 29

4%
Yes 6.9¢No 98.2¢
5.1¢
$2,656
$13,832
2%
158%
N/A
2d 17h 47m
active
polymarket

October 28

4%
1%
Yes 6.5¢No 98.6¢
5.1¢
$2,715
$8,801
3%
108%
N/A
1d 17h 47m
active
polymarket

October 31

3%
3%
Yes 4.6¢No 99.3¢
3.9¢
$4,217
$16,148
6%
348%
N/A
4d 17h 47m
active
polymarket

October 30

2%
Yes 4.2¢No 99.6¢
3.8¢
$3,040
$8,627
6%
1,919%
N/A
3d 17h 47m
active
polymarket

October 20

0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 22

0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,953
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 24

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,785
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 25

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,996
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 21

0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 26

0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$6,662
$11,080
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 15

0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,132
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 19

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,624
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 23

0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 16

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,157
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 14

0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,517
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 18

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,813
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 8

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 13

0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 17

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,553
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 6

0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 7

0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 4

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 12

0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$638
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.