TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.5b

24H VOL:

$115,807,555

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,188,566,556

336,771

Markets across

33,711

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,629

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Total volume:
$45,970
Volume 24h:
$250
4,067%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$3,236
8%

Above 1.6%

 - Kalshi

Above 1.6% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 9, 2026

Time left: 12d:19h:28m

Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.6%?

83%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 82¢ buys you 122 shares | Odds: 83% Total Payout: $122 | Net Profit: $22 Multiplier: 1.22x | ROI: 22% APY not meaningful 12 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.6%

Trade
83%
Yes 82¢No 26¢
8¢
N/A
$58
0%
0%
$58
1w 5d 19h
active
kalshi

Above 1.7%

Trade
72%
Yes 71¢No 37¢
8¢
N/A
$49
0%
85%
$22
1w 5d 19h
active
kalshi

Above 1.8%

Trade
52%
Yes 57¢No 50¢
7¢
N/A
$1,950
15%
67%
$1,506
1w 5d 19h
active
kalshi

Above 1.9%

Trade
29%
Yes 34¢No 67¢
1¢
N/A
$1,662
0%
49%
$1,649
1w 5d 19h
active
kalshi

Above 1.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 19h
active
kalshi

Above 2.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 19h
active
kalshi

Above 2.1%

Trade
N/A
N/A
8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 19h
active
polymarket

2.0-2.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,643
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Yes
polymarket

-0.5-0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,012
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

2.5%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

<-0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,131
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

1.0-1.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,029
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

1.5-2.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,139
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

0.0-0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,095
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

0.5-1.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Mexico's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026, with markets covering multiple growth brackets. Polymarket offers granular bracket-based resolution, while Kalshi appears to reference Brazilian GDP instead—creating a critical country mismatch that prevents unified resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket specifies Mexico GDP (Y/Y, Q2 2026) from INEGI; Kalshi specifies Brazilian GDP (YoY, Q2 2026). Country mismatch creates data integrity failure and makes unified resolution impossible.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate event groups. If you hold positions on both platforms, verify which country each actually tracks before settlement. A critical error in Kalshi's specification could lead to incorrect payouts. Request clarification from Kalshi support immediately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Mexico Y/Y GDP growth for Q2 2026, measured by INEGI's Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP, released July 30, 2026. Nine bracket-based markets covering ranges from <-0.5% to >=2.5%. Uses initial release data only; revisions ignored. Tie-breaking rule: if value falls exactly between two brackets, resolves to higher bracket. Source: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
  • Kalshi: Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 across seven threshold markets (1.5%, 1.6%, 1.7%, 1.8%, 1.9%, 2.0%, 2.1%). No source, timing, or data release specification provided. Country is Brazil, not Mexico.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

If Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 is above 1.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 is above 1.7%, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 is above 1.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 is above 1.9%, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 is above 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 is above 2.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 market resolves on Sep 9, 2026. Resolution hinges on the official GDP growth figure released by Mexico's statistical agency for the second quarter of 2026, typically published weeks after quarter-end. The outcome is determined by whether actual growth falls into the specified range or bracket for each contract. Markets remain open and tradeable until the final data is published and verified, allowing participants to adjust positions as new economic signals emerge.

Key catalysts for Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP include policy shifts from the central bank or federal government, trade dynamics with the United States, oil price movements, and manufacturing output trends. Quarterly PMI releases, employment data, and consumer spending indicators will shape market expectations leading into Q2. External shocks such as currency volatility, geopolitical events, or global recession fears could also reprrice odds significantly. Traders should monitor Mexican economic calendars and watch for revisions to prior-quarter GDP figures, which often signal structural changes in growth momentum.