TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

MagicBlock FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Feb 5, 2026, 10:50 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$377,445
Volume 24h:
$111,706
176%
Liquidity:
$221,984
0.22%
Open interest:
$9,706N/A

$10M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch?

23%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 29.5¢ buys you 339 shares | Odds: 23% Total Payout: $339 | Net Profit: $239 Multiplier: 3.39x | ROI: 239% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$10M

Trade
23%
4%
Yes 29.5¢No 83.4¢
12.9¢
$536
$15,289
0.89%
4%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$10M

Trade
12%
5%
Yes 21.9¢No 98.2¢
20.1¢
$35,938
$88,103
0.13%
0.75%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
23.1%
Yes 25.7¢No 90.8¢
Avg: 16.5¢Max: 20.1¢
predict

$20M

Trade
22%
Yes 24.9¢No 81.1¢
6¢
$47,109
$80,778
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$20M

Trade
20%
Yes 28¢No 88¢
16¢
$245
$17,916
0%
0.24%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
21.6%
Yes 26.5¢No 84.6¢
Avg: 11¢Max: 16¢
predict

$40M

Trade
20%
Yes 21.6¢No 82¢
3.6¢
$45,433
$30,604
0%
0.97%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$40M

Trade
16%
Yes 19¢No 87¢
6¢
$322
$10,426
0.34%
3%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
18.8%
Yes 20.3¢No 84.5¢
Avg: 4.8¢Max: 6¢
predict

$60M

Trade
19%
Yes 21.9¢No 83.7¢
5.6¢
$41,206
$71,106
0.06%
0.34%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$60M

Trade
16%
Yes 21¢No 90¢
11¢
$387
$8,653
0%
5%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
18.7%
Yes 21.5¢No 86.9¢
Avg: 8.3¢Max: 11¢
predict

$100M

Trade
18%
Yes 18.6¢No 82.1¢
0.7¢
$43,267
$42,009
0%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$100M

Trade
15%
Yes 17¢No 87¢
4¢
$211
$5,972
0%
11%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17.9%
Yes 17.8¢No 84.6¢
Avg: 2.4¢Max: 4¢
predict

$200M

Trade
12%
Yes 21.9¢No 97.6¢
19.5¢
$2,933
$4
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$200M

Trade
9%
Yes 10¢No 93¢
3¢
$399
$2,706
0%
21%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.5%
Yes 16¢No 95.3¢
Avg: 11.3¢Max: 19.5¢
predict

$300M

Trade
18%
Yes 34.7¢No 99.5¢
34.2¢
$3,546
$228
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$300M

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 10.1¢No 94.3¢
4.4¢
$452
$3,651
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
7.9%
Yes 22.4¢No 96.9¢
Avg: 19.3¢Max: 34.2¢
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market tracks the probability of MagicBlock’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) exceeding $10M one day after its launch. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Predict is 36.5%. A secondary outcome asks whether the FDV will exceed $20M, currently priced at 28%. Resolution will be based on the most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch, as defined by consistent criteria across all platforms. Should the token not launch by December 31, 2026, markets will resolve to ‘No’ as per the established rules, so keep an eye on the launch date to understand the timeline for potential resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict utilize identical resolution criteria, including the FDV calculation, launch requirement, and resolution timing.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch.

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price.
  • The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched.
  • Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
  • If MagicBlock does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Launch Definition: The markets require a 'launch' which implies a publicly tradable token. A simple token creation without trading functionality would not trigger resolution.
  • Price Discovery: The 'most liquid price source' is subjective and relies on market participants and data aggregators to determine the prevailing price.
  • No Launch: If MagicBlock fails to launch a token by the deadline, all markets resolve to 'No', regardless of any pre-launch hype or speculation.
Timing: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch of the MagicBlock governance token.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MagicBlock's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MagicBlock's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, the MagicBlock FDV market dashboard tracks predictions on whether the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of MagicBlock will exceed $10 million one day after its launch. This cross-platform view aggregates volume of $377,445 and 24-hour volume of $1,030 to provide a consensus view of expectations. Currently, Polymarket currently favors MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? at 23.1%, while Predict leans toward MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? at 21.9%. This allows traders to see how sentiment differs across venues.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, represent the collective wisdom of traders regarding the probability of a future event. In the case of MagicBlock’s FDV, the price of a ‘yes’ outcome reflects the market’s assessment of the likelihood that the FDV will surpass $10 million shortly after launch. This differs from typical spot price expectations, which focus on current valuation. Instead, this market focuses on a future state, incorporating factors like anticipated demand, token distribution, and overall market sentiment. The spread between ‘yes’ and ‘no’ outcomes, currently 1.2 percentage points, indicates the level of uncertainty.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk tolerances and information sets. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the liquidity and fee structures of each platform can influence trading behavior. While both platforms address the same question, these differences can result in discrepancies in the implied probabilities reflected in the market prices. This is a normal occurrence in decentralized prediction markets.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of MagicBlock one day after its launch, as reported by a widely recognized cryptocurrency data aggregator. The outcome will be a simple binary determination: either the FDV is above $10 million, or it is not. The resolution will reflect the prevailing market conditions at that specific time and will be based on publicly available data.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from the MagicBlock team, such as partnerships or technological advancements, could boost confidence and drive up the price of ‘yes’ outcomes. Conversely, negative news, like security vulnerabilities or regulatory concerns, could lower expectations. Broader market trends in the cryptocurrency space, particularly sentiment towards new projects, will also play a role. Finally, the initial trading activity of MagicBlock’s token after launch will be a crucial indicator, potentially causing rapid shifts in the market’s assessment of the FDV.