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Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?
polymarket

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM EST - Dec 1, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$64,051
Volume 24h:
$2,812
59%
Liquidity:
$10,063
70%
Open interest:
$7,969N/A

-3.00 to -1.01 ft

 - Polymarket

-3.00 to -1.01 ft - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 1, 2026

Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?

40%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 40¢ buys you 250 shares | Odds: 40% Total Payout: $250 | Net Profit: $150 Multiplier: 2.50x | ROI: 150% APY not meaningful 35 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

-3.00 to -1.01 ft

Trade
40%
5%
Yes 40¢No 61¢
1¢
$2,048
$16,309
7%
83%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
polymarket

-1.00 to 0.99 ft

Trade
21%
8%
Yes 22¢No 81¢
3¢
$2,003
$17,860
5%
79%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
polymarket

Below -3.00 ft

Trade
17%
2%
Yes 19.4¢No 85.1¢
4.5¢
$2,001
$3,418
9%
35%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
polymarket

1.00 to 2.99 ft

Trade
14%
2%
Yes 15.8¢No 87.9¢
3.7¢
$1,936
$12,644
3%
15%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
polymarket

3.00 ft or more

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 9.3¢No 93.6¢
2.9¢
$2,074
$13,819
2%
8%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies. If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after November 30, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below -3.00 ft". The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 07010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000&parameterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies. If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after November 30, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below -3.00 ft". The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 07010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000&parameterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Mississippi River level market tracks the current implied probability of different water levels at St. Louis by November 30th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $2,812. The total volume traded on this market is $64,051. The dashboard also displays the price history, allowing you to see how the market has reacted to news and information regarding river conditions and forecasts. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the likelihood of various outcomes.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the lowest Mississippi River level at St. Louis by the end of November. It’s interesting to compare this to forecasts from hydrologists and climate analysts, who are also attempting to predict river levels based on precipitation, snowmelt, and other factors. If analysts predict a higher likelihood of low levels, we might expect to see increasing demand for contracts representing those outcomes in this market. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies or the incorporation of unique information by market participants.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible Mississippi River levels. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that level occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the latest insights. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market provides a real-time assessment of the potential outcomes, driven by the wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Dec 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the lowest recorded Mississippi River level at St. Louis is verifiable from credible public reporting. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers provides official river stage data, and that will be used to determine the final settlement. Traders will be able to see the official level and how it corresponds to the different contract outcomes. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process based on publicly available data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major precipitation events, particularly heavy rainfall or snowmelt in the Mississippi River basin, would be key drivers. Drought conditions, or the lack thereof, will also play a crucial role. Reports from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers regarding water management practices, such as releases from upstream dams, could also move the market. Finally, long-range weather forecasts and any significant changes to climate models could impact traders’ assessments of the likely river level by Dec 2, 2026.