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Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
polymarket

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$48,174
Volume 24h:
$129
73%
Liquidity:
$22,320
69%
Open interest:
$4,071N/A

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft

 - Polymarket

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?

84%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 85¢ buys you 118 shares | Odds: 84% Total Payout: $118 | Net Profit: $18 Multiplier: 1.18x | ROI: 18% | APY: 142% 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft

Trade
84%
Yes 85¢No 17¢
2¢
$7,583
$15,219
0.33%
48%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

Below 4,189.3 ft

Trade
10%
2%
Yes 10.4¢No 90.4¢
0.8¢
$6,543
$15,950
0.06%
37%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft

Trade
3%
Yes 5.9¢No 99.5¢
5.4¢
$4,441
$12,926
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

4,189.7 ft or more

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
—
$3,753
$4,078
2%
4%
N/A
2mo 6d
active
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies. If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft". The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000&parameterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies. If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft". The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000&parameterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Great Salt Lake elevation market tracks the current implied probability of different elevation levels in 2026, as expressed through the prices of available outcomes. You can view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $129, and the total volume traded to date, which is $48,174. The dashboard also displays the odds for each potential lowest elevation, allowing you to quickly assess what traders believe is most likely. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the future water level of the Great Salt Lake.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Currently, this market suggests a particular range of likely elevations, based on the wisdom of the crowd. It’s important to note that analysts’ predictions may differ, potentially due to varying models or interpretations of climate data. Discrepancies between this market and expert projections can highlight areas of uncertainty or disagreement regarding the factors influencing the Great Salt Lake’s future water levels, such as snowpack, rainfall, and water usage policies.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different elevation outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices fluctuate, providing a dynamic and up-to-date forecast. The market’s efficiency relies on informed traders incorporating relevant data and insights into their trading decisions, ultimately shaping the overall price discovery process for the lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026.

This market resolves around Jan 2, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the lowest recorded elevation of the Great Salt Lake during the calendar year 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official elevation data will be sourced from publicly available records maintained by relevant governmental agencies or scientific institutions. The market will settle to the outcome corresponding to the lowest elevation reached, as determined by these official measurements. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major fluctuations in snowpack levels in the surrounding mountains, particularly during the winter and spring, would be a key driver. Changes in water usage policies, such as restrictions on diversions from the rivers that feed the lake, could also impact the market. Unexpectedly high or low precipitation levels throughout the year, as well as prolonged drought conditions, will influence trader sentiment. Any significant news regarding efforts to increase water inflow or reduce evaporation could also cause shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.