TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Description
This event group tracks whether the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for June 2026 will fall within specific thresholds. Both platforms resolve using the official BLS Employment Situation Report released in early July 2026, with data reported to one decimal place.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets use overlapping threshold-based YES conditions that can all resolve YES simultaneously, while Polymarket uses mutually exclusive outcome buckets. Both use the same BLS data source and release date, but the market structures create fundamentally different betting mechanics.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's 10 markets are not independent. If you sum their implied probabilities, you will overcount. Polymarket's 5 markets partition the outcome space completely. For hedging or arbitrage, map each Polymarket bucket to its corresponding Kalshi threshold set: Polymarket ≤3.9% means all Kalshi markets resolve NO; Polymarket ≥4.7% means all Kalshi markets resolve YES. Use this mapping to identify cross-platform mispricings.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
10 independent markets, each resolving YES if U-3 exceeds a floor threshold (3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%). Multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously. Quote: 'If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above [threshold] in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
5 mutually exclusive bucket markets covering the full outcome space: ≤3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%, ≥4.7%. Exactly one resolves YES. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for June 2026.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for June 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Kalshi
Each market corresponds to a specific threshold for the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for June 2026. The thresholds range from 3.9% to 4.8% in 0.1 percentage point increments. Each market resolves to Yes if the reported unemployment rate exceeds its designated threshold. The official data source is the BLS Employment Situation Report, which provides seasonally adjusted figures to account for predictable seasonal variations in employment patterns. Participants can use these markets to express views on labor market conditions and economic strength during the specified month, with each threshold representing a distinct level of labor market tightness or slack.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional economist surveys because they reward accuracy with real money, creating stronger incentives for precision. While consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve and major banks typically publish point estimates and ranges, traders here are directly wagering on binary outcomes. The current odds suggest market participants expect unemployment to remain relatively stable. Comparing these live market prices to published analyst expectations can reveal where Wall Street consensus and real-money traders disagree—a useful signal for spotting potential surprises.
Both platforms track the same unemployment threshold, but pricing gaps can emerge due to differences in user base, liquidity depth, and order-flow timing. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics and risk appetites, which influences how quickly new economic data gets priced in. Kalshi and Polymarket also operate under distinct regulatory frameworks and fee structures, subtly shifting incentives. Monitoring both venues helps you spot arbitrage opportunities and understand which platform's participants are more bullish or bearish on labor market strength.
This market settles on Jul 2, 2026, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official June employment report. The outcome hinges on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate published in that report. Traders holding positions until resolution will see their bets paid out based on whether the final figure meets the threshold specified in this market. Early exit is possible at any time before settlement by selling your position at the current market price.
Monthly jobs reports, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and inflation data will all influence trader sentiment ahead of June. Unexpected weakness in payroll growth or jobless claims could shift odds toward higher unemployment, while strong hiring surprises would move prices the opposite direction. Geopolitical shocks, recession warnings, or major corporate layoff announcements can also trigger rapid repricing. Watch for Fed communications on interest rates, as tighter or looser monetary policy directly affects hiring behavior and labor market tightness.
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