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Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Total volume:
$20,395
Volume 24h:
$528
91%
Liquidity:
$277,366
10%
Open interest:
$3,256
0.28%

Above 0.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 16, 2026

Time left: 18d:15h:17m

Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?

89%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% High Projected APY: 657% 18 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.0%

Trade
89%
Yes 90¢No 17¢
7¢
N/A
$603
0%
761%
$567
2w 4d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 0.2%

Trade
71%
Yes 76¢No 28¢
4¢
N/A
$569
0%
11%
$234
2w 4d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 0.4%

Trade
41%
Yes 50¢No 56¢
6¢
N/A
$932
0.1%
243%
$657
2w 4d 15h
active
polymarket

0.8%–1.6%

Trade
38%
21%
Yes 38¢No 94¢
32¢
$334
$313
5%
347%
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
predict

0.8%–1.6%

Trade
25%
9%
Yes 24.8¢No 75.2¢
—
$31,574
$53
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
31.5%
Yes 31.4¢No 84.6¢
Avg: 32¢Max: 32¢
polymarket

0.0%–0.8%

Trade
28%
5%
Yes 30¢No 75¢
5¢
$1,502
$5,622
3%
935%
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
predict

0.0%–0.8%

Trade
N/A
N/A
16.9¢
$29,879
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
28%
Yes 30¢No 75¢
Avg: 11¢Max: 16.9¢
polymarket

-0.8%–0.0%

Trade
21%
1%
Yes 22¢No 80¢
2¢
$460
$1,917
0.79%
3,111%
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
predict

-0.8%–0.0%

Trade
21%
1%
Yes 27.8¢No 85.8¢
13.6¢
$10
$34
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
21%
Yes 24.9¢No 82.9¢
Avg: 7.8¢Max: 13.6¢
kalshi

Above 0.6%

Trade
18%
Yes 24¢No 82¢
6¢
N/A
$1,024
0%
0.49%
$620
2w 4d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 0.8%

Trade
13%
Yes 12¢No 94¢
6¢
N/A
$362
0%
0%
$208
2w 4d 15h
active
polymarket

-1.6%– -0.8%

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 10¢No 93¢
3¢
$231
$212
20%
203%
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
predict

-1.6%– -0.8%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,895
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
9%
Yes 10¢No 93¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

-2.4%– -1.6%

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
$1,751
$2,997
0.5%
27%
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
predict

-2.4%– -1.6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,850
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
6%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

3.2%–4.0%

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
$499
$832
2%
1,565%
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
predict

3.2%–4.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,783
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
5%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Above 1.0%

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$1,488
0.34%
0.34%
$928
2w 4d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 1.2%

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$44
13%
13%
$41
2w 4d 15h
active
polymarket

1.6%–2.4%

Trade
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.7¢
3.6¢
$323
$243
61%
387%
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
predict

1.6%–2.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
9¢
$29,878
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2%
Yes 3.9¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 6.3¢Max: 9¢
polymarket

2.4%–3.2%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.2¢
1.2¢
$1,000
$2,486
5%
56%
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
predict

2.4%–3.2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,746
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.2¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 1.2¢
polymarket

4.0%+

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99¢
0.5¢
$341
$472
3%
41%
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
predict

4.0%+

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,551
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.5¢
Total markets: 25 of 27

Description

This event group tracks predictions for Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in Q3 2026, as reported by the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates). The markets resolve based on the official release scheduled for November 16, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same source and methodology for resolving Japan Q3 2026 GDP growth markets.Primary resolution logic: Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q3 2026

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves according to Japan's real GDP growth rate (QoQ Annualized, %) in Q3 2026 as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 2026.
  • The relevant figure is found in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' and expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent.
  • Data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is used to resolve the market. Any revisions made after the initial release are not considered.
  • If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket.
  • If no data for Q3 2026 is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, the market resolves based on data from the last available quarter.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Bracket Boundary: If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket.
  • Missing Data: If no data for Q3 2026 is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, the market resolves based on data from the last available quarter.
  • Data Revision: Revisions to GDP data made after the initial release of the Q3 2026 report are not considered for resolution.
Timing: The market resolves after the Japan Cabinet Office releases the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q3 2026 on November 16, 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

Kalshi

These markets measure South Africa's quarter-over-quarter GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 at successive threshold levels: 0.0%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.8%, 1.0%, and 1.2%. Each market resolves affirmatively if the official Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth rate exceeds its respective threshold. The thresholds are designed to capture different scenarios of economic performance, from minimal positive growth to more robust expansion. Resolution is based on the official GDP growth figure released by South Africa's statistical authority for the second quarter of 2026. Each threshold represents an independent market outcome, allowing participants to express views on the precise magnitude of quarterly economic growth rather than simply whether growth occurs.

Predict

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html