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Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
polymarket

Will Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7, 2026?

May 28, 2026, 3:58 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 4:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$100,711
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$594
94%
Open interest:
$552N/A

September 30

 - Polymarket

September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Israeli forces enter Tyre by September 30?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 55% Low liquidity 33 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

September 30

Trade
96%
6%
Yes 96¢No 96¢
92¢
$15
$38
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

August 31

Trade
3%
Yes 5.5¢No 99.1¢
4.6¢
$580
$19,878
0%
0.41%
N/A
3d 22h 21m
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,845
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

June 7

View
0%
Yes 5.3¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,053
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,106
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,791
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders worldwide, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts and media commentary. While analysts may rely on geopolitical models, military assessments, and diplomatic statements, prediction markets incorporate all available information through price signals. The Israeli forces enter Tyre by...? market aggregates dispersed knowledge from participants with direct financial incentive to forecast accurately. Comparing Polymarket implied probabilities to published expert predictions reveals where the crowd's view differs from institutional analysis, highlighting potential blind spots or underappreciated scenarios.

On Polymarket, the Israeli forces enter Tyre by...? event is priced as a set of mutually exclusive outcome shares, each representing a specific timeframe or scenario for entry. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 1 cent, with the price reflecting the market's probability estimate for that outcome. Polymarket uses an automated market maker to ensure continuous liquidity. The sum of all outcome prices equals 1 cent, so comparing individual outcome prices reveals which scenarios the market favors most. Real-time price discovery on Polymarket allows traders to express nuanced views about the timing and likelihood of Israeli forces entering Tyre.

The Israeli forces enter Tyre by...? market resolves on Sep 30, 2026. Resolution depends on verifiable evidence of whether Israeli forces have entered Tyre and, if applicable, the specific date or timeframe of entry. The market structure typically offers multiple outcome options tied to different resolution dates or conditions, allowing traders to bet on the precise timing of events. Once the resolution date arrives or the triggering event occurs, the market settles based on confirmed reports and established criteria, with winning shares paying out at full value and losing shares expiring worthless.

Key catalysts for the Israeli forces enter Tyre by...? market include military announcements, ceasefire agreements, diplomatic negotiations, and on-the-ground developments in southern Lebanon. Official statements from Israeli military or government sources carry significant weight. Escalations or de-escalations in regional conflict, international pressure, and humanitarian crises could shift trader expectations about timing. Media reports of troop movements, supply lines, or operational readiness may trigger sharp price moves. Geopolitical shifts, such as changes in US or international policy, also influence market odds. Traders monitor these signals continuously, repricing outcomes as new information emerges.