TOTAL VOLUME:

$115b

24H VOL:

$141,917,421

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,390,307,814

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,238,870,783

342,873

Markets across

35,506

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,453

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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US-Iran nuclear deal?
kalshi
limitless

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Total volume:
$20,385,991
Volume 24h:
$24,400
109%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$6,901,141
0.12%

Before Jan 20, 2029

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

32%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 32¢ buys you 313 shares | Odds: 32% Total Payout: $313 | Net Profit: $213 Multiplier: 3.13x | ROI: 213% High Projected APY: 2,686% 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029

Trade
32%
1%
Yes 32¢No 70¢
2¢
N/A
$109,328
0.55%
1%
$28,738
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before 2028

Trade
26%
Yes 27¢No 77¢
4¢
N/A
$90,538
0.34%
2%
$28,836
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
10%
Yes 9.4¢No 92.9¢
2.3¢
N/A
$1,545,087
0.01%
0.69%
$473,198
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
9%
Yes 11¢No 92¢
3¢
N/A
$42,965
0.25%
11%
$23,535
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$12,135
0%
1%
$7,999
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before December

Trade
4%
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$148,570
4%
10%
$66,654
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before November

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$236,316
3%
10%
$114,614
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before October

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$502,472
1%
12%
$243,205
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before September

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,187,907
0.13%
3%
$1,047,064
4mo 5d
active
limitless

December 31, 2026

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 5d
active
limitless

September 30, 2026

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 5d
active
limitless

August 31, 2026

Trade
N/A
N/A
1.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 5d
active
kalshi

Before April

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,773,725
N/A
N/A
$862,611
4mo 5d
No
kalshi

Before June

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,392,806
N/A
N/A
$1,245,995
4mo 5d
No
kalshi

Before May

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,881,261
N/A
N/A
$565,400
4mo 5d
No
kalshi

Before July

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,649,545
N/A
N/A
$1,091,239
4mo 5d
No
kalshi

Before August

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,813,334
N/A
N/A
$1,102,051
4mo 5d
No
Total markets: 17

Description

Negotiation and establishment of a new nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran before specified dates.

Kalshi

A new Iran-US nuclear deal must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments that satisfies two criteria: (1) it imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, such as limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, and (2) it provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one U.S. economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments. Multilateral agreements involving other countries qualify if the United States participates. A restriction is "verifiable" only if it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard—such as a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision—against which compliance could be confirmed. General expressions of intent without concrete standards do not qualify. Public and official agreement by both governments to the terms of a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if formal signing has not yet occurred. The market resolves based on whether such an agreement has been agreed to, signed, or accepted by the specified deadline.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.