TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
ISM Manufacturing PMI - May 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 14d:10h:28m
ISM Manufacturing PMI in Jun 2026?
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Description
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for May 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on June 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi employs a multi-threshold OR-logic structure with May and June data paths, while Polymarket uses mutually exclusive May-only brackets. The platforms measure the same underlying index but structure resolution incentives and outcomes differently.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's design rewards any PMI reading >= 49.0 across all 8 May contracts simultaneously; Polymarket isolates a single bracket outcome. If you are arbitraging, confirm whether Kalshi treats each threshold as an independent market or collapses them. Also note Kalshi's June fallback—if May data is delayed, June PMI becomes the resolution source on Kalshi but not Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
16 threshold-based conditions (8 for May, 8 for June). All May conditions trigger YES if PMI >= 49.0; all June conditions trigger YES if PMI >= 51.0. Structure is cumulative OR-logic: any single threshold breach resolves the market to YES. Includes explicit fallback to June data if May is delayed. Key Quote: 'If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for May 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 49 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
11 mutually exclusive bracket questions for May only. Exactly one bracket will resolve to YES based on where the May PMI reading falls (e.g., below 47.0, 47.0-47.9, 50.0-50.9, 55.0+). No June fallback; resolution tied solely to May 2026 ISM report released June 1, 2026, 10:00 AM ET. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.'
Kalshi
This event establishes multiple threshold levels for the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline value in June 2026, ranging from at least 51 to at least 58 in one-point increments. Each threshold represents a separate market outcome based on the one-decimal-place value published by ISM. Traders can use these tiered outcomes to express specific expectations about manufacturing sector activity in June 2026, with higher PMI values indicating stronger economic conditions.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money conviction from traders and often diverge from consensus economist forecasts. While sell-side analysts typically publish point estimates and ranges based on historical models, markets price in tail risks, geopolitical shocks, and forward-looking sentiment that surveys may miss. The ISM Manufacturing PMI - May 2026 market allows you to compare the implied probability of specific outcomes against Bloomberg consensus or Federal Reserve expectations. This comparison reveals whether markets are pricing in a more hawkish or dovish manufacturing outlook than the mainstream forecast, signaling potential surprises or areas of disagreement among professional traders.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket may quote different probabilities for the same ISM outcome due to variations in liquidity depth, user base composition, and contract design. Kalshi may attract institutional traders focused on precise threshold bets, while Polymarket draws retail flow with different risk appetites. Order book imbalances, funding costs, and platform-specific incentives can also widen spreads. Additionally, each platform's settlement rules and data source may introduce subtle interpretation differences, causing temporary mispricings. Savvy traders monitor both venues to identify arbitrage opportunities or to gauge which market is pricing in more pessimistic manufacturing conditions.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI - May 2026 market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, coinciding with the official ISM release. The outcome is determined by the headline Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index value published by the Institute for Supply Management. This index measures expansion or contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Markets typically settle within hours of the data release once the official figure is confirmed and verified by the platform's data provider. Early resolution may occur if the ISM announces a delay or revision.
Key catalysts include monthly employment reports, Fed policy announcements, trade tensions or tariff changes, and global supply chain disruptions. Unexpected inflation data or interest rate decisions can shift manufacturing sentiment overnight. Corporate earnings calls and manufacturing PMI surveys from other countries may signal U.S. sector momentum. Geopolitical events, commodity price swings, and credit market stress can also ripple through factory activity. Real-time purchasing manager surveys and flash PMI readings in the weeks leading up to May 2026 will provide early signals. Watch for revisions to prior months' data, which can reset baseline expectations and move odds materially.
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