TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Intro
This market tracks which team will score first in the Iraq vs. Norway FIFA World Cup match. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows Norway to score first at 100.0%. The resolution source is the official match result following 90 minutes plus stoppage time on June 16, 2026. Watch for the match kickoff on June 16, 2026, as the opening minutes will be critical in determining which team breaks the deadlock first.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves on match outcome (any result = Yes), while Polymarket's markets resolve on which team scores first or neither team scores. The markets measure different events despite sharing the same match.Hero Tip:
These are not interchangeable markets. Kalshi is a match-result market (always Yes unless canceled). Polymarket is a first-to-score market with three distinct outcomes. Arbitrage or hedging between them requires understanding that a 0-0 draw is a loss for Polymarket scorers but a win for Kalshi.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Binary Yes/No market on match outcome. Resolves Yes if Iraq wins, Norway wins, or tie occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No differentiation between outcomes. Key Quote: 'If Iraq wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Norway wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Three-outcome market on first-to-score within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Resolves to Iraq, Norway, or Neither. Explicitly excludes extra time and penalties. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Iraq" if Iraq are the first to score... This market will resolve to "Norway" if Norway are the first to score... If neither team scores... this market will resolve "Neither".'
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Iraq and Norway, scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Iraq" if Iraq are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Norway" if Norway are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the outcome of the Iraq vs Norway professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for June 16, 2026, evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie after regulation time, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market is descriptive only and has not been endorsed by FIFA or any associated marks.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price the same event differently due to distinct user bases, fee structures, and market mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a fixed margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous pricing. This market may show tighter or wider spreads than sportsbooks depending on liquidity depth and whether sharp bettors have concentrated positions. Cross-referencing both venues can reveal mispricings, though prediction market odds tend to converge toward consensus as resolution approaches.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct order books, fee schedules, and user demographics, which naturally produces price variation even for identical outcomes. Kalshi and Polymarket may attract different trader profiles—some favoring regulatory oversight, others prioritizing liquidity or UI design. Funding rates, withdrawal delays, and platform-specific incentives also influence where sophisticated traders concentrate capital. These differences typically narrow as the event date approaches, but arbitrage opportunities can persist if one venue has thinner liquidity or slower information flow.
This market resolves on . The outcome is determined by which team scores the opening goal during the match. Once a goal is officially recorded, the market settles in favor of that team, and all positions are closed. Traders should monitor official match broadcasts and scorekeeping to confirm the result in real time.
Team news—injuries to key strikers, lineup changes, or tactical shifts—can significantly reprrice this market. Pre-match analysis, recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage assessments all influence trader positioning. Weather conditions, referee assignments, and late-breaking roster updates may trigger sharp moves as kickoff approaches. Social media sentiment and expert commentary can also sway retail traders, while institutional money typically waits for concrete information before adjusting large positions.
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