TOTAL VOLUME:
$66b
24H VOL:
$398,877,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
647,445,881
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,477,629,845
622,934
Markets across
14,083
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,257
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Intro
This market tracks whether England will defeat Ireland in their women's T20 World Cup cricket match. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for England to win. Resolution will be determined by official ESPN Cricinfo records following the match scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 1:30 PM EDT. Watch for the match outcome on that date to see how the market resolves.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's match winner market resolves to Yes for both England and Ireland victories, creating a logical impossibility. This is a data integrity failure that makes the market fundamentally unresolvable as a binary outcome.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading Kalshi's match winner market entirely due to the logical contradiction. Use Polymarket's match winner market instead, which correctly resolves to the actual winner. Both platforms' toss and completion markets are sound and can be traded with confidence.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Match winner market contains contradictory resolution logic: 'If England wins the match... resolves to Yes' and separately 'If Ireland wins the match... resolves to Yes'. This means all decisive match outcomes resolve identically to Yes, eliminating the binary nature of the market. Quote: 'If England wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Ireland wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Match winner market resolves to the actual match winner (England or Ireland) with explicit handling of ties (50-50 split if no Super Over available) and cancellations (50-50 split if abandoned/no result). Quote: 'This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/.' Treats DLS, DRS, forfeit, and Super Over outcomes as ordinary wins.
Polymarket
This market refers to the cricket match between England and Ireland scheduled for June 16 2026 in ICC T20 World Cup, Women. This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Kalshi
The match is scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 1:30 PM EDT. If an official winner is declared by the governing body, the market resolves based on that result. If the match ends in a tie, draw, no result, abandonment, or cancellation with no official winner declared, all markets resolve to $0.50. If a forfeit, disqualification, or concession occurs before the match begins, all markets resolve to $0.50. If such an event occurs after play has begun and the governing body declares an official winner, the market resolves based on that declared result. If play begins but insufficient play occurs to determine an official result, all markets resolve to $0.50.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the same event differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus to discover true probability. Sportsbooks often shade odds toward favorites to manage liability; prediction markets tend toward efficiency as traders arbitrage mispricings. For this match, comparing this market's implied odds to major sportsbook lines can reveal value opportunities, though prediction market liquidity may be tighter than traditional betting venues.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, fee structures, and regulatory frameworks that influence pricing. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight with distinct contract specifications, while Polymarket uses an AMM model that can create different equilibrium prices. Liquidity depth varies between venues—one may have larger order books, reducing slippage and tightening spreads. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but temporary divergences persist due to withdrawal delays, platform-specific friction, and trader preference for one venue over another.
This market resolves around , once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will reflect which team wins the contest, confirmed through official ICC reporting and major sports news outlets. Early resolution may occur if the match is abandoned or cancelled under ICC rules, though standard play determines the winner. Traders should monitor official tournament communications and match schedules to anticipate any scheduling changes that could affect resolution timing.
Key catalysts include team roster announcements, injury updates to star players, recent head-to-head form, and weather forecasts for match day. Venue conditions and pitch reports often shift odds significantly in T20 cricket. Pre-match betting activity and sharp money flow can signal informed positioning. Tournament momentum—how each team performs in prior group matches—typically influences this market's price. Breaking news on player availability or tactical changes in the days before the fixture will likely trigger repricing as traders adjust their forecasts.
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