TOTAL VOLUME:

$150.1b

24H VOL:

$142,857,652

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,278,615

483,990

Markets across

35,811

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,349

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Jan 29, 2026, 12:07 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$260,409
Volume 24h:
$133N/A
Liquidity:
$91,601
2%
Open interest:
$22,412N/A

$100M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch?

9%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 13.5¢ buys you 741 shares | Odds: 9% Total Payout: $741 | Net Profit: $641 Multiplier: 7.41x | ROI: 641% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$100M

Trade
9%
8%
Yes 13.5¢No 96.3¢
9.8¢
$381
$24,923
0%
0.6%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$100M

Trade
N/A
N/A
34.5¢
$60
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.6%
Yes 13.5¢No 96.3¢
Avg: 22.2¢Max: 34.5¢
polymarket

$20M

Trade
5%
Yes 6.3¢No 95.8¢
2.1¢
$578
$41,069
0%
0.04%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$20M

Trade
N/A
N/A
53¢
$31
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.3%
Yes 6.3¢No 95.8¢
Avg: 27.6¢Max: 53¢
predict

$50M

Trade
17%
Yes 34.7¢No 99.9¢
34.6¢
$40,969
$434
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$50M

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 7¢No 96.5¢
3.5¢
$612
$77,175
0.09%
0.29%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.3%
Yes 20.8¢No 98.2¢
Avg: 19.1¢Max: 34.6¢
predict

$40M

Trade
21%
Yes 42.5¢No 99.9¢
42.4¢
$29,817
$1
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$40M

Trade
5%
Yes 7.4¢No 97.7¢
5.1¢
$321
$11,433
0.09%
1%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.9%
Yes 25¢No 98.8¢
Avg: 23.8¢Max: 42.4¢
polymarket

$30M

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 5.4¢No 99.1¢
4.5¢
$325
$13,867
0.37%
2%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$30M

Trade
N/A
N/A
39.9¢
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.2%
Yes 5.4¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 22.2¢Max: 39.9¢
predict

$5M

Trade
20%
Yes 34.5¢No 95.5¢
30¢
$6,768
$1
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$5M

Trade
3%
Yes 4.6¢No 98.7¢
3.3¢
$536
$22,571
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3%
Yes 19.5¢No 97.1¢
Avg: 16.7¢Max: 30¢
predict

$10M

Trade
16%
Yes 29.9¢No 97.7¢
27.6¢
$1
$1
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

$10M

Trade
3%
Yes 4.3¢No 98.7¢
3¢
$356
$31,346
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.8%
Yes 17.1¢No 98.2¢
Avg: 15.3¢Max: 27.6¢
polymarket

$200M

Trade
3%
Yes 3.8¢No 98.8¢
2.6¢
$8,709
$37,588
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
predict

$200M

Trade
N/A
N/A
26.9¢
$2,119
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.5%
Yes 3.8¢No 98.8¢
Avg: 14.8¢Max: 26.9¢
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Hurupay’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) exceeding $40M one day after its launch. Currently, the consensus probability of this outcome is 21.3%, with Polymarket and Predict aggregating to this view. The second most probable outcome, Hurupay FDV exceeding $50M one day after launch, stands at 17.4%. Resolution will be based on the most liquid price source available, and the markets consistently define FDV as total supply multiplied by price. Keep an eye on the token launch date, as a ‘No’ resolution is guaranteed if the token isn't launched by December 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize the same FDV calculation, resolution timing, and fallback condition for non-launch scenarios.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price.
  • Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
  • Markets resolve to 'Yes' if FDV exceeds the specified threshold at resolution time.
  • Markets resolve to 'No' if FDV does not exceed the specified threshold at resolution time.
  • If Hurupay does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Launch Definition: The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. If the token is launched but not tradable, the markets will likely remain open until the December 31, 2026 deadline.
  • Price Discovery: If there is no liquid market for the token at the resolution time, determining the 'most liquid price source' could be subjective and potentially lead to disputes.
  • Timezone Ambiguity: While the rule specifies 4:00 PM ET, ensure the chosen price source reflects this timezone to avoid discrepancies.
Timing: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch of the Hurupay governance token, or December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no launch occurs.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Hurupay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Hurupay (https://x.com/HurupayApp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Hurupay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Hurupay (https://x.com/HurupayApp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, the Hurupay FDV market tracks predictions on whether the fully diluted valuation of Hurupay will be above a certain threshold one day after its launch. Currently, this market aggregates data showing a consensus view, with a combined volume of $260,409 and 24-hour volume of $187. Polymarket currently favors Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch? at 8.6%, while Predict leans toward Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? at 21.3%. This dashboard provides a unified view of sentiment across these prediction markets, allowing traders to assess the likelihood of different outcomes.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd assessment of future probabilities, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than simple spot price expectations. The current pricing on Polymarket and Predict incorporates information from a diverse range of traders, weighing various factors that could influence Hurupay’s FDV. This differs from traditional financial analysis, which may rely on specific models or limited datasets. The 12.7 difference in implied probabilities between the platforms highlights the inherent uncertainty and varying interpretations within the market.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules on Polymarket and Predict can influence trading behavior. These differences contribute to the observed discrepancies in probabilities for the Hurupay FDV market, even though both platforms address the same underlying question.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the fully diluted valuation of Hurupay one day after its launch, as determined by publicly available data sources. Traders should monitor relevant announcements and data releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts that could impact the final outcome of this market. The final valuation will be assessed against the specified threshold to determine the winning outcome.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Key announcements regarding Hurupay’s launch, partnerships, or technological developments would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and the overall health of the DeFi sector could also play a role. Unexpected regulatory news or security breaches related to Hurupay or its underlying technology would be strong catalysts. Monitoring social media trends, developer activity, and trading volume on decentralized exchanges will provide valuable insights into potential shifts in this market’s probabilities before Jan 1, 2027.