TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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1,380,975,298
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340,805
Markets across
34,373
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,679
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
20M+
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20M+ - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Aug 25, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 20 million views this week?
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Description
This event group tracks the viewership of the top-ranked movie on Netflix for the week ending August 25, 2026. Markets across different platforms are resolving based on whether the #1 movie meets or exceeds specific view count thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use the same primary data source (Netflix's official Top 10 list) and share identical resolution timing and tie-breaking rules.Primary resolution logic: Netflix's official Global Top 10 Movies list published on top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- Resolution depends on the view count of the #1 ranked movie in Netflix's Global Top 10 list for the week ending August 25, 2026.
- If the update does not occur by August 28, 2026, Polymarket resolves to "Other"; Kalshi markets have no explicit fallback rule.
- Alphabetical tie-breaking applies if multiple movies share the #1 rank.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Update Failure: If Netflix fails to publish the Top 10 list by August 28, 2026, Polymarket resolves to "Other"; Kalshi markets lack a specified fallback and may remain unresolved.
- Tie-Breaker: If multiple movies tie for #1, the one with the alphabetically first title determines the resolution view count.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie has a views figure greater than or equal to the specified amount, according to Netflix. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the number of views (not hours viewed) of the #1 Movie on Netflix’s weekly Global "Movies | English" chart published on August 25, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. All markets share identical secondary rules and resolution timing: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart’s publication. Each market has a distinct numeric threshold – ranging from 6 million to 50 million views – that determines a "Yes" outcome. If the top movie’s view count meets or exceeds a market’s specified threshold, that market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No". Neither these markets nor their associated products are endorsed by Netflix; all references to Netflix are purely descriptive and indicate no affiliation or endorsement.