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$150.1b

24H VOL:

$141,844,315

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,859,322,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,733,993,399

484,032

Markets across

35,818

events

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3,360

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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VS.

Kalshi:

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How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
kalshi

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

Apr 1, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 2, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$86,526
Volume 24h:
$211
28%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$40,296
0.32%

Above 4

 - Kalshi

Above 4 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 2, 2026

Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

2%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 5¢ buys you 2,000 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $2,000 | Net Profit: $1,900 Multiplier: 20.00x | ROI: 1,900% APY not meaningful 36 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4

Trade
2%
3%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$26,691
0.42%
2%
$13,816
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 5

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$18,523
0.54%
2%
$7,753
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 10

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,942
0%
0%
$1,142
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 6

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$19,279
0%
0%
$7,270
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 7

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,318
0%
5%
$3,255
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 8

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,464
0%
0%
$2,012
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 9

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,463
0%
0.9%
$2,818
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 12

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,816
0%
0%
$1,374
1mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 15

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,030
0%
0%
$856
1mo 6d
active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event monitors the number of hurricanes at category 1 strength or higher that occur during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as recorded by NOAA's National Hurricane Center. The outcome varies based on how many major hurricanes are recorded between the start and end of the season.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the count of Category 1 or higher hurricanes recorded by NOAA's National Hurricane Center between January 1, 2026 and December 1, 2026. Each threshold represents a distinct outcome: exceeding 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, or 15 hurricanes during this period. The market expires at the earlier of when the event occurs or one day after December 1, 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the prediction market suggests a different outlook than many traditional forecasts. While pre-season forecasts from organizations like NOAA typically predict a range for hurricane activity, this market allows for a more nuanced and dynamic assessment. The collective wisdom of traders currently indicates a probability distribution that may differ from the average analyst prediction. It's important to note that these forecasts are often issued months in advance, while this market will continuously update as we get closer to and through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, potentially offering a more accurate signal.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, ranges for the total number of Atlantic hurricanes in 2026. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective prediction. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume provide insights into the confidence level associated with each potential outcome, showcasing how traders weigh various factors influencing hurricane formation.

This market resolves around Dec 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of Atlantic hurricanes during the 2026 season is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official count will be based on data from recognized meteorological agencies, such as the National Hurricane Center. The resolution will reflect the total number of named storms that reach hurricane status (winds of 74 mph or higher) during the calendar year. The final price of contracts will reflect whether the actual hurricane count falls within the range specified by each contract.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Early seasonal forecasts released in the spring of 2026 will likely cause price adjustments. Major weather patterns like El Niño or La Niña, which influence Atlantic hurricane activity, will be closely watched. Unexpectedly warm or cool sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, as well as changes in wind shear, could also shift the market. Finally, any significant advancements in hurricane forecasting technology or changes in climate models could influence trader behavior and move the odds in this market.