TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.6b
24H VOL:
$132,305,954
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,208,428,537
337,256
Markets across
34,285
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,306
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
$4/MTok or below
- Kalshi
$4/MTok or below - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Commodities
Will Input Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $4/MTok in 2026?
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Description
This event tracks how much OpenAI reduces the price of GPT 5.5 input tokens by 2026. As AI models become more efficient and competition increases, API pricing typically falls over time. The resolution depends on the standard listed price shown on OpenAI's official pricing page.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the standard Input Token Price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 listed on the API pricing section of https://openai.com/api/pricing/ during 2026, measured in USD per million tokens (MTok). The price must be explicitly displayed on that page; if the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product will be used instead. Only the standard listed API price applies—promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing is excluded from consideration. If the pricing page is unavailable at resolution, the last available published price will be used. If no pricing data exists for GPT 5.5 by the expiration date, the last available price from 2026 will be used; if no prior value is available at all, all outcomes resolve to No. Each outcome resolves Yes if the price meets or falls below its specified threshold ($4, $3, $2, or $1 per MTok respectively).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders who have direct financial incentives to forecast accurately, whereas analyst forecasts often rely on published research and qualitative assessments. For how low will the openai gpt 5.5 input token price get in 2026, markets typically incorporate forward-looking signals—such as competitive pricing from rivals, OpenAI's stated cost-reduction roadmap, and historical token price trends—faster than traditional analyst reports. Comparing the current market odds to published analyst consensus can reveal where traders see divergence or opportunity relative to expert opinion.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, how low will the openai gpt 5.5 input token price get in 2026 is priced using binary or range-based outcome contracts that traders buy and sell to express their views on token cost trajectories. Each contract reflects the collective belief of market participants about whether input token prices will fall within specified price bands by the end of 2026. The market price—ranging between 0 and 100—directly represents the implied probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating stronger trader conviction that prices will reach lower levels.
This market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is determined by OpenAI's official published input token pricing for GPT 5.5 at that time, measured in USD per million tokens or the equivalent pricing metric disclosed by OpenAI. The outcome is settled based on the lowest price tier reached during 2026, with resolution data sourced from OpenAI's pricing page or official announcements.
Key catalysts include OpenAI's product announcements regarding GPT 5.5 capabilities and cost efficiency, competitive pricing moves from Anthropic, Google, and Meta, macroeconomic shifts affecting cloud compute costs, and any public statements from OpenAI leadership about pricing strategy. Regulatory developments around AI access and pricing transparency, breakthroughs in model efficiency that reduce inference costs, and changes in demand for large-scale API access could all shift trader expectations about how low will the openai gpt 5.5 input token price get in 2026. Quarterly earnings calls and developer conference announcements are also likely inflection points.
